* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VANCE EP212014 10/31/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 47 50 54 62 69 79 84 86 84 73 55 44 38 37 37 V (KT) LAND 40 44 47 50 54 62 69 79 84 86 84 73 55 44 34 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 48 51 54 58 62 71 79 79 68 51 34 23 19 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 7 8 6 2 5 4 1 4 11 17 27 41 46 49 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -2 0 1 -2 0 -1 1 9 18 10 7 1 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 182 203 219 231 314 347 32 171 233 223 210 207 226 249 260 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.0 28.6 28.1 29.0 29.2 28.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 152 153 156 159 161 162 155 151 145 154 156 144 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.0 -53.6 -52.7 -53.2 -52.2 -52.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 7 7 7 6 5 6 2 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 57 58 57 60 67 71 71 72 76 70 61 46 35 25 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 13 14 17 18 22 23 25 24 20 10 4 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 9 13 19 23 19 11 -2 -5 -3 9 19 40 22 -13 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 50 34 43 55 56 91 84 160 139 120 31 0 -63 -56 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -3 -3 2 8 15 11 -6 -7 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 652 698 743 785 827 904 913 927 852 723 569 369 243 135 -37 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.9 10.7 10.4 10.3 10.1 10.1 10.7 11.6 13.1 15.1 17.0 19.0 20.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.1 101.6 102.0 102.6 103.2 104.9 106.7 108.5 109.6 110.1 109.8 108.9 108.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 6 7 9 10 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 16 15 17 18 19 19 42 48 37 27 9 51 49 13 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 19. 21. 23. 25. 27. 29. 31. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 7. 5. 1. -5. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 13. 17. 20. 19. 12. -2. -7. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 14. 22. 29. 39. 44. 47. 44. 33. 15. 4. -2. -3. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 10.9 101.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212014 VANCE 10/31/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.78 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.72 5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.43 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 183.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.68 -4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.32 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.15 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.53 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 61% is 13.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.8% 27.9% 23.5% 18.8% 0.0% 29.5% 39.8% 61.5% Logistic: 7.5% 26.3% 18.7% 11.0% 6.0% 16.1% 38.2% 48.2% Bayesian: 2.3% 36.1% 10.4% 2.8% 1.5% 0.5% 0.6% 3.3% Consensus: 7.9% 30.1% 17.6% 10.9% 2.5% 15.4% 26.2% 37.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212014 VANCE 10/31/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##