* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYONE EP212014 10/30/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 41 50 60 70 79 79 72 57 39 32 32 33 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 41 50 60 70 79 79 72 57 39 30 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 35 37 39 44 50 50 41 29 19 18 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 10 9 11 8 1 8 5 3 8 15 27 40 51 58 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -4 -1 6 -2 -2 -2 1 11 19 9 4 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 225 199 191 201 212 308 330 12 200 231 210 208 223 228 255 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.8 29.5 28.9 28.5 28.4 29.3 27.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 154 154 155 157 159 163 159 153 150 149 159 139 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.1 -53.6 -52.4 -53.0 -51.9 -52.6 -51.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 55 57 59 59 59 65 69 71 73 72 63 47 38 36 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 15 18 19 22 26 26 23 15 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 2 18 18 18 24 22 14 1 12 9 21 22 93 73 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 37 48 62 51 54 53 94 99 182 129 88 -9 -42 -63 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -4 -4 -1 2 8 12 0 -5 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 574 599 624 669 713 797 848 885 873 799 678 512 306 142 -127 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.2 11.0 10.7 10.8 11.2 12.2 13.7 15.5 17.5 19.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 100.7 101.2 101.6 102.1 102.7 103.9 105.4 107.1 108.5 109.6 109.9 109.5 108.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 5 6 6 7 7 9 9 9 9 11 12 13 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 23 22 20 19 19 17 24 48 42 36 20 13 48 7 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 35. 37. 39. 41. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 0. -5. -13. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -11. -10. -10. -8. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 19. 25. 24. 19. 8. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 20. 30. 40. 49. 49. 42. 27. 9. 2. 2. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.5 100.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212014 TWENTYONE 10/30/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.89 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.52 3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.43 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 150.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.73 -4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.25 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.20 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.13 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 20.9% 16.3% 12.3% 0.0% 17.5% 15.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 9.0% 5.2% 2.3% 1.9% 5.1% 6.4% 21.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 3.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.1% Consensus: 3.5% 11.0% 7.4% 4.9% 0.6% 7.5% 7.4% 7.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212014 TWENTYONE 10/30/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##