* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/26/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 42 36 34 35 29 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 42 36 34 35 29 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 43 37 31 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 39 47 57 66 68 64 50 52 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -3 -7 -11 -13 -11 -5 -10 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 316 298 283 274 264 253 252 244 249 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 15.2 14.3 13.5 13.6 13.3 13.5 13.9 12.2 10.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 69 67 65 63 62 62 63 64 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.3 -48.5 -47.9 -47.0 -46.8 -45.8 -45.8 -47.5 -49.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.9 2.6 3.2 3.3 1.8 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 59 63 58 54 42 47 54 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 24 27 29 28 23 12 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 172 198 193 212 226 195 137 98 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 76 68 64 38 38 21 29 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 149 189 154 69 17 -21 -9 -21 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1766 1596 1274 1093 914 721 420 72 -275 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 41.2 43.4 45.5 46.7 47.9 48.4 49.6 52.3 55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 150.2 147.2 144.2 142.5 140.7 137.7 133.8 130.1 126.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 35 31 23 17 13 12 16 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 40 CX,CY: 35/ 20 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -14. -19. -20. -22. -24. -26. -29. -33. -39. -44. -49. -53. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 2. 5. 6. 6. -1. -18. -47. -77.-100.-108.-116.-128.-143.-165.-179. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. 11. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -0. 1. 4. 10. 22. 34. 40. 41. 38. 31. 20. 16. 10. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -17. -17. -20. -22. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 5. 7. 6. 3. -9. -23. -24. -23. -22. -20. -18. -16. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 17. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -17. -20. -17. -14. -13. -13. -13. -10. -8. -4. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -16. -15. -21. -31. -52. -83.-109.-132.-148.-165.-190.-210.-234.-238. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 41.2 150.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/26/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 55.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 96.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/26/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##