* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/24/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 46 47 42 38 37 32 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 46 47 42 38 37 32 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 45 44 37 29 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 12 14 16 13 17 29 54 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 7 14 8 2 -3 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 339 312 306 297 284 333 310 292 280 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 26.6 25.9 24.8 24.3 20.7 16.2 14.2 12.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 130 123 113 109 74 68 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -54.0 -53.4 -52.5 -51.3 -50.2 -49.2 -50.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 5 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 53 53 53 54 58 59 68 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 19 19 20 19 18 20 25 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -59 -47 -27 -14 6 124 130 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 6 26 44 41 33 71 47 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 9 13 22 29 25 39 113 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1198 1230 1271 1289 1334 1513 1806 1499 961 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.6 28.6 29.5 30.8 32.1 35.5 39.6 44.0 48.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 170.3 170.0 169.7 168.5 167.4 163.0 156.7 149.6 142.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 13 16 20 29 33 34 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -14. -17. -21. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. -2. -19. -33. -43. -46. -49. -54. -61. -71. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 11. 11. 11. 8. 5. -0. -4. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 3. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 16. 21. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 2. -3. -7. -8. -13. -26. -35. -44. -53. -67. -79. -91. -96. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 27.6 170.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/24/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.45 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.29 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 300.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/24/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##