* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/23/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 39 42 45 51 57 59 56 52 46 37 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 39 42 45 51 57 59 56 52 46 37 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 39 42 44 43 37 29 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 8 6 7 10 8 12 8 22 39 68 46 48 43 43 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 -2 0 4 8 12 6 3 -11 5 -1 -1 -2 N/A SHEAR DIR 212 218 206 213 257 284 286 311 337 302 287 277 265 258 251 244 N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.4 26.8 25.5 24.8 22.2 18.7 15.4 13.9 12.9 14.8 14.6 12.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 140 137 136 130 118 114 89 68 68 68 64 62 63 63 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.7 -53.8 -52.9 -51.7 -50.0 -48.7 -49.3 -51.7 -50.6 -50.6 -51.3 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 0.4 0.2 0.9 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.9 2.1 1.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 47 49 52 54 58 58 57 58 54 57 54 53 48 54 60 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 18 18 18 20 20 19 20 22 27 30 30 26 20 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -21 -23 -31 -46 -59 -51 -30 -14 91 174 132 83 85 80 81 N/A 200 MB DIV 4 13 10 7 13 3 39 13 33 25 45 24 17 34 46 45 N/A 700-850 TADV 6 2 3 4 6 11 18 29 36 80 108 103 4 -6 -6 -8 N/A LAND (KM) 813 869 929 988 1048 1157 1219 1285 1407 1798 1615 1170 519 420 135 -191 N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.4 25.1 25.8 26.4 26.9 27.9 29.4 31.5 34.4 38.3 42.5 47.0 51.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 167.7 168.0 168.3 168.7 169.0 169.6 169.1 167.5 163.5 157.2 150.7 144.3 137.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 6 10 17 27 32 32 31 18 13 14 16 N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 20 21 18 13 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 13. 12. 11. 8. 3. -2. -7. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. -1. -9. -22. -33. -43. -54. -69. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 3. 2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 5. 6. 5. 6. 8. 15. 17. 15. 10. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 12. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 16. 22. 24. 21. 17. 11. 2. -10. -30. -52. -80. -86. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 24.4 167.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/23/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.71 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.55 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 263.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 34.4 to 2.3 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.48 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/23/14 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING