* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092014 10/23/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 27 30 34 38 39 41 39 40 40 40 40 43 45 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 26 26 26 33 38 38 40 39 39 40 40 39 42 44 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 24 25 26 26 31 31 31 31 29 26 24 22 21 21 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 6 5 12 8 14 15 17 22 22 24 22 25 22 17 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -5 -2 -2 -4 -3 -5 -2 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 250 261 259 189 189 185 193 231 233 267 269 286 278 290 288 280 279 SST (C) 28.7 29.1 29.4 29.2 28.7 28.6 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 151 156 153 144 143 148 150 152 152 151 151 150 152 152 153 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 137 142 139 131 129 133 135 137 137 135 135 132 135 134 135 134 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.3 -52.8 -52.4 -53.0 -52.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.1 -53.6 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 9 7 9 7 8 6 8 6 9 7 10 8 9 700-500 MB RH 74 71 69 68 68 63 60 55 51 49 53 53 59 60 63 63 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 9 10 9 9 9 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 78 68 62 66 69 54 46 35 31 27 37 23 19 6 4 0 14 200 MB DIV 38 48 19 15 3 10 -4 9 15 4 9 7 15 18 21 30 36 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 0 -1 0 -3 0 1 1 4 4 6 6 4 3 4 LAND (KM) 15 -29 -77 -127 -116 -11 38 77 134 216 233 238 252 274 306 307 270 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 18.9 18.7 18.5 18.3 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.2 90.7 90.2 89.7 89.3 88.3 87.5 87.0 86.4 85.6 85.0 84.5 84.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 31 31 9 4 9 29 40 45 46 45 48 55 61 65 65 63 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):105/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 460 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 31. 35. 37. 38. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 2. -0. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 13. 14. 16. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15. 18. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.1 91.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092014 NINE 10/23/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 33.3 to 3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.6 to -2.7 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 59.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.86 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.83 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092014 NINE 10/23/14 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092014 NINE 10/23/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 25 26 26 26 33 38 38 40 39 39 40 40 39 42 44 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 26 26 33 38 38 40 39 39 40 40 39 42 44 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 22 29 34 34 36 35 35 36 36 35 38 40 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 15 22 27 27 29 28 28 29 29 28 31 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT