* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092014 10/22/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 32 35 39 43 48 52 59 63 69 70 70 72 73 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 32 29 27 27 31 37 40 47 52 58 58 59 60 61 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 27 27 27 30 33 36 39 41 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 18 14 14 16 6 13 12 16 14 13 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -5 -3 0 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 249 246 237 268 205 180 175 209 218 220 246 258 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.8 29.1 28.9 28.5 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 142 146 151 148 142 153 153 152 154 154 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 126 126 128 132 137 134 128 139 139 138 140 138 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 8 8 7 8 7 9 8 9 7 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 78 74 73 70 69 67 64 56 46 44 42 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 11 10 11 11 10 12 12 16 17 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 72 73 83 84 81 87 82 87 67 49 51 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 54 55 48 55 45 24 18 -2 17 20 9 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -6 -1 0 -2 -3 -4 -2 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 89 89 59 30 -26 -128 -87 41 159 268 299 315 345 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.3 19.1 18.9 18.6 18.5 18.5 18.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 92.6 92.1 91.5 91.0 90.4 89.4 88.3 87.1 86.0 85.0 84.1 83.3 82.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 17 22 32 31 4 30 59 55 55 72 97 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 23. 26. 29. 32. 34. 35. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -4. -3. -4. 0. 1. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 5. 9. 13. 18. 22. 29. 33. 40. 40. 40. 42. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.4 92.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092014 NINE 10/22/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 25.9 to 2.2 0.37 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 33.3 to 3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.6 to -2.7 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 44.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.88 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.41 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092014 NINE 10/22/14 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092014 NINE 10/22/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 32 29 27 27 31 37 40 47 52 58 58 59 60 61 18HR AGO 30 29 30 30 27 25 25 29 35 38 45 50 56 56 57 58 59 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 23 21 21 25 31 34 41 46 52 52 53 54 55 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 17 15 15 19 25 28 35 40 46 46 47 48 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT