* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/21/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 47 48 52 59 67 71 71 64 56 49 46 30 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 47 48 52 59 67 71 71 64 56 49 46 30 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 44 44 45 50 56 60 60 53 43 33 26 20 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 22 17 17 12 5 1 13 22 30 30 21 28 63 60 47 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 -3 3 5 5 16 23 -7 -6 5 5 SHEAR DIR 234 228 226 230 213 158 18 298 289 278 309 309 298 266 254 245 233 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.2 26.5 25.5 23.6 22.7 20.8 19.1 14.3 12.9 12.9 13.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 146 146 145 141 136 129 119 99 91 72 68 69 64 61 61 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -52.2 -51.9 -50.6 -49.0 -49.7 -50.3 -49.3 -49.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.1 2.0 1.8 1.4 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 7 5 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 48 48 43 47 45 47 55 62 61 62 57 42 54 32 39 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 18 20 22 25 25 26 25 24 24 29 29 27 22 16 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -6 -15 -28 -25 -35 -44 -71 -67 -49 -39 18 125 88 179 193 157 200 MB DIV 8 55 24 -20 -2 0 16 37 17 56 44 56 55 79 22 14 32 700-850 TADV 5 3 1 1 1 1 1 14 31 51 67 69 68 59 -40 -82 -145 LAND (KM) 545 598 656 705 761 861 952 1029 1104 1187 1307 1510 1772 1459 894 719 528 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.3 21.8 22.5 23.2 24.9 26.7 28.5 30.3 32.0 33.8 35.8 37.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 165.4 166.0 166.6 167.0 167.5 168.0 168.0 167.4 166.2 164.4 161.9 158.7 155.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 12 15 17 32 37 17 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 43 40 36 28 22 20 16 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 3. -1. -6. -11. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. -2. -7. -14. -16. -19. -29. -44. -58. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 0. 2. 3. 7. 9. 11. 10. 9. 8. 13. 11. 8. 4. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 2. 3. 7. 14. 22. 26. 26. 19. 11. 4. 1. -15. -38. -66. -92. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.8 165.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/21/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.68 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 376.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 34.4 to 2.3 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/21/14 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING