* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/21/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 46 45 47 48 53 59 68 72 71 70 66 57 52 41 21 N/A V (KT) LAND 50 46 45 47 48 53 59 68 72 71 70 66 57 52 41 21 N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 47 45 44 43 44 48 53 58 61 59 51 41 36 30 23 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 27 22 17 15 9 4 1 6 15 22 21 30 47 51 47 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 0 0 -1 1 -3 -2 -1 3 4 8 11 4 4 7 1 SHEAR DIR 234 239 235 221 221 224 113 292 303 285 279 289 286 280 262 262 258 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.5 26.9 26.2 24.2 22.5 20.3 18.4 16.4 16.3 16.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 146 146 147 145 141 138 132 126 106 89 71 70 67 64 63 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -52.9 -52.8 -52.3 -51.7 -49.7 -52.0 -53.0 -54.2 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.1 -0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.6 0.9 1.9 1.6 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 45 46 50 48 48 47 49 50 56 60 60 43 63 64 57 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 19 18 19 20 23 24 23 24 24 24 32 36 36 33 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -24 -20 -13 -25 -34 -43 -46 -56 -65 -52 33 149 181 122 87 108 200 MB DIV 50 22 8 54 20 -4 -5 7 32 21 44 73 33 71 60 7 40 700-850 TADV 5 5 2 2 1 1 1 2 8 20 43 45 47 111 18 -28 -19 LAND (KM) 416 467 526 578 636 735 824 914 992 1074 1173 1345 1575 1940 1251 740 418 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.9 21.3 21.8 22.3 23.4 24.7 26.2 27.9 29.7 31.7 34.1 36.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 164.0 164.7 165.3 165.9 166.4 167.2 167.7 167.9 167.5 166.6 164.8 162.2 159.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 11 14 16 32 40 28 19 15 HEAT CONTENT 41 37 36 36 32 22 19 18 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. 4. -0. -5. -9. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -7. -10. -18. -29. -41. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 4. 9. 11. 10. 11. 10. 9. 16. 19. 17. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -5. -3. -2. 3. 9. 18. 22. 21. 20. 16. 7. 2. -9. -29. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 20.5 164.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/21/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.63 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 396.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.38 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/21/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##