* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/19/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 69 68 67 65 67 69 69 71 73 76 78 76 72 65 58 V (KT) LAND 70 69 69 68 67 65 67 69 69 71 73 76 78 76 72 65 58 V (KT) LGEM 70 70 69 67 64 60 57 57 58 61 65 68 71 73 73 68 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 27 29 31 31 28 20 16 16 11 8 5 9 14 18 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 1 -2 -2 -1 1 -2 1 -1 3 3 0 1 2 0 6 SHEAR DIR 276 272 270 266 256 249 228 249 228 237 184 214 256 259 270 275 287 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.3 26.3 26.0 25.3 24.6 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 145 145 146 145 144 142 137 137 136 135 124 121 115 109 96 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.2 -51.5 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 60 57 54 52 50 46 47 50 54 58 64 67 68 67 59 52 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 17 16 16 16 18 19 19 21 24 26 28 29 32 31 31 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -48 -29 -24 -21 -27 -24 -25 -25 -17 0 -20 -19 -16 29 61 78 200 MB DIV 45 1 0 23 36 27 26 -1 17 5 34 27 43 49 36 17 9 700-850 TADV 3 5 4 -1 -7 0 6 4 3 3 2 6 11 11 8 5 14 LAND (KM) 175 165 133 140 175 306 443 566 671 766 865 970 1073 1072 1200 1231 1264 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.4 20.6 20.8 21.0 21.6 22.4 23.4 24.4 25.4 26.5 27.6 28.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 159.2 159.8 160.4 161.0 161.7 163.2 164.5 165.5 166.2 166.7 167.1 167.5 167.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 4 5 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 50 32 29 33 39 30 25 24 16 18 18 13 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. -13. -13. -15. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 10. 13. 14. 16. 16. 17. 14. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -3. -1. -1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 6. 2. -5. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 20.1 159.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/19/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.42 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 435.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.80 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/19/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##