* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/19/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 70 68 66 63 62 63 64 63 66 67 69 69 67 61 55 V (KT) LAND 70 70 70 68 66 63 62 63 64 63 66 67 69 69 67 61 55 V (KT) LGEM 70 69 68 65 63 58 55 55 55 58 63 68 73 77 79 75 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 24 25 29 30 34 30 24 21 18 17 17 17 17 14 15 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 6 6 3 -4 0 -2 -2 -6 -4 1 0 1 3 5 0 3 SHEAR DIR 271 261 265 270 265 251 254 234 235 243 233 241 241 256 230 255 217 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.9 28.1 28.0 27.3 27.2 25.7 24.9 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 145 144 145 146 146 146 145 142 143 143 134 133 119 110 111 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -54.2 -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -53.9 -52.8 -52.5 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 -0.1 0.8 0.6 1.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 60 61 59 57 54 50 50 52 55 58 61 64 68 66 62 57 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 16 15 16 16 17 19 20 22 24 26 28 31 32 32 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -25 -28 -28 -22 -16 -21 -14 -16 -17 -19 -25 -15 -17 -4 3 20 200 MB DIV 75 39 -3 -10 26 17 36 27 10 1 12 21 53 49 66 22 5 700-850 TADV 7 3 2 0 -3 -6 4 4 6 6 6 8 8 12 12 7 6 LAND (KM) 210 213 165 154 165 276 398 517 631 736 835 939 1037 1044 1227 1284 1338 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.0 20.3 20.5 20.7 21.1 21.8 22.6 23.6 24.6 25.7 26.9 28.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 159.0 159.6 160.2 160.8 161.3 162.8 164.1 165.2 166.1 166.8 167.3 167.7 168.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 3 5 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 52 37 28 29 34 36 29 30 25 16 20 17 8 7 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -14. -16. -17. -19. -20. -21. -21. -22. -23. -24. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -2. -4. -7. -8. -7. -6. -7. -4. -3. -1. -1. -3. -9. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 19.6 159.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/19/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.42 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 385.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.80 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.94 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/19/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##