* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TRUDY EP202014 10/18/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 50 54 61 65 68 70 71 71 72 73 73 74 78 81 V (KT) LAND 40 36 33 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 36 33 31 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 2 1 3 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 -6 -7 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 6 323 217 258 271 258 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 150 149 149 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -52.2 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 8 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 72 74 77 78 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 54 64 61 68 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 62 68 87 91 83 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 0 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -21 -31 -40 -52 -65 -75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.7 16.7 16.8 16.9 17.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 98.9 98.8 98.7 98.6 98.6 98.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 19 19 19 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 21. 23. 24. 26. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. 32. 33. 33. 34. 38. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.6 98.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202014 TRUDY 10/18/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.76 9.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.93 8.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.62 5.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.82 -7.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.51 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.18 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.87 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.21 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 42% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.5% 41.5% 32.0% 24.3% 15.3% 35.9% 42.1% 26.4% Logistic: 17.2% 47.9% 40.5% 27.4% 17.3% 48.7% 57.6% 26.8% Bayesian: 2.9% 29.6% 18.2% 6.1% 1.7% 7.5% 4.4% 19.3% Consensus: 11.9% 39.7% 30.2% 19.3% 11.5% 30.7% 34.7% 24.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202014 TRUDY 10/18/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##