* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/18/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 86 85 83 79 65 46 30 28 25 23 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 86 85 83 79 65 46 30 26 29 29 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 85 82 78 70 53 44 41 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 13 17 23 23 34 40 42 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 8 10 12 11 12 10 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 215 216 208 214 222 252 273 269 224 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 25.9 25.3 23.1 14.5 10.4 10.4 12.6 12.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 118 114 100 77 73 73 75 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 111 110 107 95 74 72 72 73 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.5 -53.3 -53.8 -53.9 -53.3 -52.7 -50.7 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.6 -0.1 -0.4 0.6 1.8 3.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 32 33 37 39 42 50 46 47 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 33 33 34 35 30 24 24 29 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 0 -15 -43 -39 -55 -1 96 176 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 85 119 130 105 76 19 -23 -9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 33 46 78 85 87 56 -15 -87 -94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1040 895 754 599 345 638 1474 556 -42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.7 36.0 38.2 40.9 43.6 48.9 52.7 55.3 57.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 63.8 61.8 59.9 56.8 53.6 44.3 32.1 18.3 4.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 22 27 31 36 39 42 43 41 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 16 CX,CY: 8/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -8. -15. -24. -34. -44. -51. -56. -60. -64. -68. -69. -70. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -10. -13. -16. -15. -13. -13. -14. -16. -18. -19. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. -2. -10. -12. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 5. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -5. -7. -11. -25. -44. -60. -62. -65. -66. -69. -72. -76. -78. -81. -83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 33.7 63.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/18/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.40 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.28 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.54 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.83 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 710.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.12 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.66 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 64.8 95.0 to 0.0 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/18/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/18/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 10( 21) 7( 26) 2( 28) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 86 85 83 79 65 46 30 26 29 29 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 88 86 82 68 49 33 29 32 32 33 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 84 80 66 47 31 27 30 30 31 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 76 62 43 27 23 26 26 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 57 38 22 18 21 21 22 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 86 77 71 68 59 40 24 20 23 23 24 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 86 85 76 70 66 47 31 27 30 30 31 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS