* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/18/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 72 73 72 70 67 66 63 61 64 65 68 69 72 71 66 V (KT) LAND 70 72 72 73 72 70 67 66 63 61 64 65 68 69 72 71 66 V (KT) LGEM 70 72 73 73 72 70 67 63 62 62 66 72 81 91 98 100 93 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 18 21 19 25 26 29 26 22 14 17 10 10 6 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 1 3 3 2 -1 -2 -3 0 -3 3 2 2 2 2 SHEAR DIR 252 252 263 286 283 258 250 255 249 243 224 223 167 175 191 234 225 SST (C) 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.4 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 141 143 142 143 145 147 147 148 147 146 146 144 140 136 126 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.7 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.2 1.1 1.4 1.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 55 59 60 62 63 62 60 57 58 57 61 61 64 66 67 68 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 16 16 17 17 18 18 19 21 23 26 30 33 35 34 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -11 -13 -8 -13 -24 -10 0 -11 -5 1 -1 24 44 53 48 51 200 MB DIV 79 46 54 56 79 25 44 28 35 33 28 14 47 42 68 82 75 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -1 0 4 6 0 5 6 3 4 6 7 13 15 11 LAND (KM) 264 230 239 273 261 221 200 278 392 522 641 735 835 883 1003 1084 1161 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.3 20.8 21.3 22.0 22.7 23.4 24.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 156.2 157.0 157.8 158.4 159.0 160.1 161.3 162.7 164.0 165.3 166.4 167.2 168.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 7 6 7 7 7 7 5 5 6 7 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 19 29 39 45 47 27 32 40 33 35 34 26 20 21 18 10 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 739 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -15. -15. -14. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 15. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -4. -7. -9. -6. -5. -2. -1. 2. 1. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 16.6 156.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/18/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.38 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.04 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 377.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.80 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 2.1% 2.2% 1.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.9% 0.8% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 3.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/18/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##