* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/17/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 63 64 64 64 61 58 57 52 54 56 57 58 60 59 55 V (KT) LAND 60 62 63 64 64 64 61 58 57 52 54 56 57 58 60 59 55 V (KT) LGEM 60 63 64 64 64 62 59 56 53 50 50 52 56 60 65 70 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 8 12 13 18 24 27 22 24 21 20 20 16 19 16 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 -1 -1 1 4 -1 3 -1 1 0 3 2 0 2 3 SHEAR DIR 272 281 271 252 260 292 287 276 261 254 260 234 234 224 249 271 272 SST (C) 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.4 27.7 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.7 27.2 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 136 138 141 142 142 143 144 148 147 147 144 140 139 133 126 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -54.5 -54.6 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 700-500 MB RH 60 59 60 61 63 64 63 58 55 54 55 60 66 67 67 66 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 16 16 16 16 15 15 17 15 18 19 21 23 26 28 27 850 MB ENV VOR 10 -2 -14 -9 -8 -14 -28 -14 -8 -15 -3 -4 5 7 45 47 50 200 MB DIV 43 57 58 60 86 67 23 19 60 39 48 26 9 46 54 56 52 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 1 2 2 -1 2 4 1 5 9 10 14 12 19 14 LAND (KM) 443 340 258 208 204 258 216 142 170 254 360 476 600 654 778 827 870 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 16.0 16.6 17.3 17.9 19.0 19.9 20.6 21.1 21.7 22.3 23.0 23.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 153.7 154.7 155.7 156.5 157.4 158.6 159.7 160.7 161.7 162.7 163.7 164.7 165.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 8 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 15 24 38 48 32 29 40 37 31 32 27 20 18 9 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -4. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 1. -2. -3. -8. -6. -4. -3. -2. -0. -1. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 15.4 153.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/17/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.46 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.45 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 296.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.92 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 10.3% 12.6% 8.3% 6.3% 3.7% 5.3% 3.5% 0.3% Bayesian: 3.4% 16.6% 7.4% 2.4% 1.8% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/17/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##