* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/17/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 54 54 55 56 57 58 55 54 56 59 60 62 60 59 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 54 54 55 56 57 58 55 54 56 59 60 62 60 59 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 51 51 50 49 47 46 43 40 38 39 42 46 52 59 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 7 8 11 12 17 21 22 28 24 19 13 17 13 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 1 0 -3 0 3 4 1 -2 -3 2 -1 0 3 3 0 SHEAR DIR 18 318 289 286 267 271 286 284 270 262 259 263 252 244 218 230 239 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.3 27.5 28.0 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 140 137 137 138 143 140 141 144 146 146 144 143 140 136 134 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 5 4 700-500 MB RH 60 59 60 59 59 64 66 62 58 57 56 58 59 58 57 62 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 17 17 17 17 17 19 18 19 21 24 26 29 31 34 850 MB ENV VOR 18 16 12 2 -9 -9 -32 -21 -9 -4 -5 6 11 6 29 51 78 200 MB DIV 37 38 37 43 33 67 88 45 17 57 53 44 47 1 53 45 64 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -4 -3 -1 1 9 9 9 7 13 9 12 12 8 2 LAND (KM) 669 568 465 360 265 146 169 132 117 44 101 234 358 422 570 616 623 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.9 15.4 16.0 16.6 17.9 19.1 20.1 20.8 21.4 22.0 22.5 23.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 151.4 152.4 153.3 154.2 155.1 156.6 157.5 158.2 159.1 160.1 161.2 162.4 163.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 10 8 7 6 5 6 6 6 5 7 6 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 14 13 13 22 44 46 51 43 44 33 26 21 22 19 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 1. 1. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 5. 4. 6. 10. 10. 12. 10. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.4 151.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/17/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.57 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.39 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 239.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 8.7% 17.9% 9.5% 6.9% 1.6% 5.5% 4.1% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 3.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/17/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##