* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/16/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 51 53 54 55 55 55 53 49 47 47 46 51 51 50 47 V (KT) LAND 50 50 51 53 54 55 55 55 53 49 47 47 46 51 51 50 47 V (KT) LGEM 50 49 49 50 50 49 47 44 41 38 36 34 35 39 43 49 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 4 4 8 10 7 19 22 27 28 22 26 19 27 27 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 3 3 -3 -2 2 0 4 -3 -5 0 -3 -2 -3 5 3 SHEAR DIR 13 19 356 300 266 266 264 296 293 283 273 260 267 252 241 232 241 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.5 28.0 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 142 141 139 137 138 142 140 140 144 145 143 141 141 139 138 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.9 -53.6 -54.4 -53.7 -54.4 -54.2 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 63 60 61 58 59 59 65 66 66 61 56 57 57 59 61 63 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 20 20 19 18 16 16 15 17 17 18 23 26 30 33 850 MB ENV VOR 24 29 24 21 18 2 0 -12 -6 1 2 -2 0 11 43 67 75 200 MB DIV 4 46 67 55 44 41 85 94 58 8 33 61 39 64 28 74 67 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -1 0 -2 -3 3 4 5 3 1 2 7 9 5 5 LAND (KM) 817 723 633 532 429 241 126 140 143 106 59 78 229 258 451 449 431 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.3 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.8 18.0 19.1 19.9 20.6 21.4 22.2 23.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 149.8 150.8 151.7 152.7 153.6 155.2 156.4 157.2 158.0 158.8 159.8 160.9 162.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 5 5 6 6 4 6 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 14 15 13 13 20 39 45 51 46 41 29 26 19 19 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 452 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. -1. -2. -3. -4. 1. 1. -0. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 13.9 149.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/16/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.58 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 236.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 2.5% 11.0% 4.7% 3.4% 0.8% 3.4% 4.1% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/16/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##