* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/16/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 55 56 57 58 59 59 57 56 56 58 59 59 58 58 V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 55 56 57 58 59 59 57 56 56 57 58 59 58 57 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 53 53 52 50 48 46 44 42 41 42 42 45 49 56 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 11 10 13 8 6 8 16 21 24 29 18 23 21 26 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 6 2 2 0 0 -2 1 0 2 -3 -6 -3 -1 -2 0 4 SHEAR DIR 360 345 327 335 333 293 221 233 286 280 272 272 256 267 239 241 234 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.1 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.6 27.2 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 137 137 139 137 136 134 139 139 140 142 141 142 138 135 131 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -51.9 -52.4 -52.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -54.1 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 6 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 58 58 59 60 57 60 61 64 69 68 62 61 64 65 64 64 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 23 23 23 23 22 20 20 19 20 21 23 26 28 32 37 850 MB ENV VOR 16 21 24 25 19 17 3 0 -4 10 16 15 17 10 31 49 98 200 MB DIV 27 16 7 24 37 44 63 62 75 50 39 43 72 69 43 73 120 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -2 -4 -1 2 0 2 5 9 7 8 14 12 13 0 LAND (KM) 938 855 774 684 596 417 227 60 99 97 53 15 49 166 385 425 502 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.9 15.2 16.1 17.2 18.4 19.4 20.2 21.0 21.8 22.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 148.0 148.9 149.7 150.5 151.4 153.0 154.5 155.8 156.9 157.7 158.5 159.3 160.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 6 5 5 5 5 8 6 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 7 8 11 15 13 11 25 38 48 48 35 28 21 14 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.1 148.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/16/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.51 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.48 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 259.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 1.9% 5.4% 1.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.9% 1.3% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/16/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##