* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/15/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 110 110 109 110 107 108 105 101 85 69 49 30 31 30 29 27 V (KT) LAND 110 110 110 109 110 107 108 105 101 85 69 49 30 31 30 29 27 V (KT) LGEM 110 109 107 106 105 102 97 90 78 58 47 39 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 4 11 13 7 17 14 22 25 34 35 40 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 -1 -1 1 -1 0 -1 5 4 3 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 259 254 273 271 243 242 214 212 218 248 267 286 291 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 26.9 26.6 25.3 19.5 9.8 11.5 10.3 12.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 143 144 145 126 124 113 84 72 73 72 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 132 128 127 128 130 114 114 104 80 70 71 70 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.3 -53.4 -52.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.8 -53.1 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.3 1.1 0.9 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 7 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 53 55 56 57 47 35 33 39 49 49 50 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 24 25 26 28 32 32 36 32 27 19 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -18 -23 -25 -4 31 57 -6 -47 -32 14 -24 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 21 51 60 77 44 94 54 92 58 -18 -14 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 10 12 11 17 36 35 38 20 -4 40 8 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 485 562 643 755 867 1014 983 648 405 239 945 1301 580 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.6 25.4 26.4 27.4 30.1 33.8 38.3 43.0 47.7 51.1 53.0 54.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.3 68.5 68.8 68.6 68.5 67.1 64.9 62.0 57.0 49.6 40.4 29.6 18.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 13 18 23 28 33 34 34 34 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 56 50 39 32 39 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -8. -16. -27. -38. -50. -60. -68. -74. -78. -80. -81. -80. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -5. -4. -4. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 10. 14. 9. 2. -10. -23. -22. -22. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -0. -3. -2. -5. -9. -25. -41. -61. -80. -79. -80. -81. -83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 23.8 68.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/15/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.29 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.23 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 661.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.17 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.2 95.0 to 0.0 0.66 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 9.7% 5.3% 4.3% 3.1% 3.6% 1.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 3.8% 1.9% 1.5% 1.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/15/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/15/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 29( 50) 29( 64) 27( 74) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 19 16( 32) 16( 43) 0( 43) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 110 110 109 110 107 108 105 101 85 69 49 30 31 30 29 27 18HR AGO 110 109 109 108 109 106 107 104 100 84 68 48 29 30 29 28 26 12HR AGO 110 107 106 105 106 103 104 101 97 81 65 45 26 27 26 25 23 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 101 98 99 96 92 76 60 40 21 22 21 20 18 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 88 89 86 82 66 50 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 110 110 101 95 92 89 90 87 83 67 51 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 110 110 110 101 95 91 92 89 85 69 53 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS