* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/15/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 66 69 71 72 72 72 70 62 58 54 49 49 52 55 55 V (KT) LAND 60 63 66 69 71 72 72 72 70 60 56 47 49 49 52 55 55 V (KT) LGEM 60 63 65 66 67 65 63 61 58 53 50 48 46 46 51 61 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 0 3 5 4 3 4 5 8 18 27 29 26 11 13 18 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 9 10 9 5 3 2 -3 4 0 -3 -8 -4 -3 1 0 8 SHEAR DIR 108 313 331 286 311 326 249 281 277 268 281 274 276 271 242 213 241 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.0 27.5 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 138 137 136 136 138 136 134 137 138 138 140 145 144 138 134 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -52.0 -52.7 -52.3 -53.4 -53.6 -54.4 -54.2 -54.4 -53.9 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 5 5 7 7 6 4 700-500 MB RH 56 55 57 59 59 59 60 61 65 70 69 67 65 67 56 53 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 21 22 23 23 23 22 22 17 16 16 15 15 17 23 28 850 MB ENV VOR 14 16 14 19 23 19 19 3 -1 2 8 17 23 16 38 57 82 200 MB DIV -9 1 34 21 16 55 49 66 47 104 57 12 32 51 65 54 46 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -4 0 1 -10 4 1 3 7 6 10 8 -1 LAND (KM) 1096 1012 929 852 775 612 441 250 82 16 38 -5 62 79 464 535 583 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.5 16.3 17.4 18.5 19.5 20.4 21.3 22.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 146.1 146.9 147.7 148.5 149.2 150.8 152.3 153.8 155.0 156.1 157.0 157.8 158.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 7 6 5 7 14 10 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 7 8 8 11 17 16 10 17 29 37 37 32 20 18 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -2. 3. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 10. 2. -2. -6. -11. -11. -8. -5. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 14.2 146.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/15/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.44 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 287.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 25.4% 40.9% 25.4% 23.5% 1.5% 11.0% 1.7% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.3% 4.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/15/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##