* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/15/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 67 71 73 78 79 80 79 74 69 63 60 59 58 56 55 V (KT) LAND 60 63 67 71 73 78 79 80 79 74 69 63 60 59 58 56 55 V (KT) LGEM 60 63 66 68 70 71 72 73 71 67 63 59 57 56 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 6 0 1 3 7 2 2 1 11 20 29 24 17 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 7 8 3 -4 1 0 0 4 0 -5 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 80 126 247 3 282 338 310 249 201 282 281 281 272 282 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.7 27.7 27.9 27.9 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 138 138 137 136 137 136 135 136 140 140 140 138 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -51.8 -52.1 -52.5 -53.0 -53.3 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.4 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 6 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 55 54 57 58 57 54 57 60 65 68 67 64 65 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 21 22 23 25 25 26 26 24 21 20 20 22 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 24 29 28 34 40 43 36 18 8 26 22 30 24 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 9 12 42 19 41 69 57 35 78 52 15 54 64 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 -2 3 0 4 6 12 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1141 1058 975 898 821 659 480 299 133 28 96 45 15 24 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.7 15.2 16.0 17.0 17.9 18.9 19.9 20.9 21.9 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 145.8 146.6 147.4 148.2 148.9 150.5 152.1 153.6 155.0 156.1 157.2 158.2 159.2 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 7 8 7 7 4 1 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 6 7 8 7 9 16 16 11 15 30 45 47 44 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 6. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 7. 3. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 13. 18. 19. 20. 19. 14. 9. 3. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 13.9 145.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/15/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.45 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.84 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 305.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 20.4% 46.4% 26.5% 25.2% 3.8% 13.2% 4.0% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 3.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/15/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##