* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/15/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 112 112 113 112 109 107 108 106 102 88 69 55 42 30 29 26 V (KT) LAND 110 112 112 113 112 109 107 108 106 102 88 69 55 42 30 29 26 V (KT) LGEM 110 112 111 109 107 104 99 94 90 78 58 46 40 37 35 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 5 5 9 11 10 16 12 13 26 30 43 66 64 48 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 1 0 0 0 0 0 5 6 17 14 0 -5 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 186 223 276 286 280 263 250 213 204 194 217 246 265 283 286 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 26.9 26.6 25.2 21.1 12.0 11.2 9.8 10.7 13.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 146 144 143 143 125 124 112 89 72 71 69 70 72 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 132 130 128 126 127 113 112 102 83 70 69 68 68 69 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.0 -53.3 -52.4 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -54.1 -56.2 -58.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.1 1.2 1.1 1.6 0.8 -0.2 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 51 51 51 53 56 44 33 33 42 48 46 45 43 45 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 22 24 25 27 28 31 33 36 34 27 24 19 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 5 -10 -22 -24 -3 40 41 -14 -31 -30 26 8 -100 -168 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 42 21 19 57 83 54 97 63 96 69 19 -23 -41 -8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 9 9 8 12 17 37 22 43 52 25 54 65 46 79 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 432 473 523 594 669 884 1029 1017 730 379 3 564 1149 1304 724 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.4 24.1 24.9 25.6 27.5 30.1 33.3 37.4 42.4 46.9 50.4 52.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.0 67.6 68.1 68.4 68.6 68.2 66.9 65.0 62.3 58.5 53.0 45.7 37.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 12 16 21 26 29 30 28 25 26 26 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 62 50 49 43 35 42 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -14. -25. -34. -44. -54. -62. -69. -76. -80. -81. -81. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -0. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 12. 16. 12. 2. -4. -11. -18. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -3. -2. -3. -8. -22. -41. -55. -68. -80. -81. -84. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 22.6 67.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/15/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.33 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.23 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 742.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.08 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.8 95.0 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.0% 22.2% 15.7% 8.6% 5.0% 6.1% 2.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 5.0% 6.1% 2.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.6% 9.4% 6.1% 3.0% 1.7% 2.1% 0.7% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/15/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/15/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 30( 50) 30( 65) 28( 75) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 18 39( 50) 28( 64) 39( 78) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 112 112 113 112 109 107 108 106 102 88 69 55 42 30 29 26 18HR AGO 110 109 109 110 109 106 104 105 103 99 85 66 52 39 27 26 23 12HR AGO 110 107 106 107 106 103 101 102 100 96 82 63 49 36 24 23 20 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 99 96 94 95 93 89 75 56 42 29 17 16 DIS NOW 110 101 95 92 91 88 86 87 85 81 67 48 34 21 DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 110 112 103 97 94 93 91 92 90 86 72 53 39 26 DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 110 112 112 103 97 93 91 92 90 86 72 53 39 26 DIS DIS DIS