* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/15/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 112 114 114 114 111 110 110 109 107 94 74 59 44 31 30 25 V (KT) LAND 110 112 114 114 114 111 110 110 109 107 94 74 59 44 31 30 25 V (KT) LGEM 110 114 115 114 111 107 101 95 91 85 71 51 39 34 33 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 12 7 8 9 13 10 11 17 27 51 63 68 64 67 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 -1 -2 -1 4 2 2 5 -2 -2 -10 -5 -6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 174 192 217 271 273 291 253 255 215 205 209 223 246 274 292 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.4 27.5 26.9 25.9 25.7 21.9 12.5 12.0 10.2 11.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 153 149 146 142 131 125 116 116 92 72 72 71 71 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 144 142 138 133 129 126 116 112 105 104 84 70 70 70 69 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -55.5 -56.8 -57.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.4 -0.2 0.2 0.6 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 51 51 52 52 56 50 41 31 36 32 39 45 47 43 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 22 21 24 26 27 29 31 34 32 25 20 13 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 3 -4 -17 -25 -23 7 47 40 4 16 9 21 -65 -87 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 66 46 35 25 31 74 53 75 96 57 60 59 35 -36 -42 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 11 8 10 7 14 33 50 38 30 18 67 43 50 21 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 367 440 480 538 604 773 1021 1033 978 692 430 67 628 1343 985 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.6 23.4 24.2 24.9 26.5 28.6 31.0 34.2 38.1 42.4 46.7 50.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 66.2 66.9 67.5 67.8 68.2 68.3 67.4 66.1 64.1 61.4 57.5 52.2 44.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 10 12 16 20 24 28 29 31 32 31 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 80 65 51 42 38 32 23 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -0. -5. -13. -23. -32. -40. -48. -56. -63. -70. -75. -76. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -3. 0. 2. 3. 1. -3. -8. -11. -15. -16. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 2. 4. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 16. 12. 2. -6. -16. -23. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 4. 1. -0. -0. -1. -3. -16. -36. -51. -66. -79. -80. -85. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 21.8 66.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/15/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.80 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.38 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.23 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 725.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.10 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.5% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.5% 28.2% 20.5% 11.0% 6.0% 8.0% 3.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 9.3% 16.3% 6.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.4% 20.3% 8.8% 4.0% 2.2% 2.8% 1.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/15/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/15/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 30( 50) 30( 65) 29( 75) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 34 20( 47) 33( 65) 28( 75) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 112 114 114 114 111 110 110 109 107 94 74 59 44 31 30 25 18HR AGO 110 109 111 111 111 108 107 107 106 104 91 71 56 41 28 27 22 12HR AGO 110 107 106 106 106 103 102 102 101 99 86 66 51 36 23 22 17 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 100 97 96 96 95 93 80 60 45 30 17 16 DIS NOW 110 101 95 92 91 88 87 87 86 84 71 51 36 21 DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 110 112 103 97 94 92 91 91 90 88 75 55 40 25 DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 110 112 114 105 99 95 94 94 93 91 78 58 43 28 15 DIS DIS