* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/14/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 46 52 58 65 68 75 78 81 80 76 76 76 77 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 46 52 58 65 68 75 78 81 80 76 76 76 77 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 41 44 45 50 55 60 65 71 73 74 72 68 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 8 6 9 10 5 5 5 4 5 5 3 7 9 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -3 -4 -1 0 -3 0 2 -1 0 3 0 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 112 115 82 63 51 84 53 36 23 19 49 273 245 326 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.3 27.0 26.8 27.2 27.4 26.7 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 140 138 136 134 134 137 136 133 131 135 135 132 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -52.8 -53.1 -52.5 -53.2 -52.3 -52.7 -52.0 -52.4 -51.6 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 6 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 73 70 66 64 62 62 61 60 59 59 59 58 71 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 15 15 16 17 19 19 22 22 24 23 22 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 42 36 30 25 24 29 44 30 31 15 20 23 -6 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 87 73 63 63 49 54 52 3 28 73 107 65 19 30 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 4 4 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1533 1472 1411 1358 1305 1196 1091 967 815 628 450 273 105 376 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.9 14.0 14.3 14.9 15.8 16.8 17.8 18.8 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 142.3 142.8 143.3 143.8 144.2 145.2 146.3 147.5 148.8 150.3 151.6 152.9 154.1 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 8 8 8 8 3 13 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 21 20 15 10 5 5 8 8 10 20 27 14 17 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 17. 19. 21. 21. 22. 22. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 8. 6. 5. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 17. 23. 30. 33. 40. 43. 46. 45. 41. 41. 41. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.7 142.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/14/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.71 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.53 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.31 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 7.0% 22.0% 10.3% 7.1% 2.6% 6.9% 8.9% 13.2% Bayesian: 5.7% 15.0% 6.3% 2.4% 0.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/14/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##