* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/14/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 83 90 96 100 108 111 111 112 111 106 102 100 92 81 60 41 V (KT) LAND 75 83 90 96 100 108 111 111 112 111 106 102 100 92 81 60 41 V (KT) LGEM 75 84 91 96 100 105 107 107 107 103 96 91 81 68 52 39 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 9 9 13 2 8 10 8 12 22 31 42 44 54 68 72 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 2 0 3 0 0 3 2 1 3 2 -3 4 1 0 SHEAR DIR 190 190 174 146 171 233 307 289 247 234 227 224 228 238 233 244 256 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 27.7 27.5 26.7 26.1 26.1 16.0 11.9 9.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 155 155 153 151 149 146 145 133 132 123 118 119 76 72 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 147 146 145 142 137 131 127 127 117 116 108 103 106 73 71 69 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.7 -53.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -52.4 -52.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.6 -53.3 -54.9 -55.6 -57.4 -57.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.5 1.0 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 11 10 10 11 10 9 7 6 5 5 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 51 53 52 51 52 54 59 54 46 37 32 20 20 32 51 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 21 21 22 25 26 28 31 34 35 38 41 39 34 24 17 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -2 7 1 1 1 -7 -3 15 30 62 53 83 -77 -34 30 23 200 MB DIV 36 34 43 20 28 46 53 70 90 71 62 50 32 18 38 51 38 700-850 TADV 11 15 9 9 10 6 12 13 18 27 11 5 1 8 27 50 110 LAND (KM) 274 207 197 240 322 449 568 700 874 1104 1076 1049 863 689 379 546 1118 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 19.1 19.8 20.6 21.4 23.0 24.5 25.8 27.3 29.2 31.4 33.8 36.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.1 63.9 64.7 65.4 66.2 67.4 68.0 68.2 67.7 66.7 65.3 63.4 61.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 11 10 9 7 7 9 11 14 15 18 23 31 33 31 HEAT CONTENT 43 52 69 81 86 57 42 34 39 17 17 11 0 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 46.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -16. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 5. 2. -2. -6. -13. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 9. 13. 17. 18. 20. 24. 19. 12. -1. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 7. 10. 15. 14. 10. 5. 1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 15. 21. 25. 33. 36. 36. 37. 36. 31. 27. 25. 17. 6. -15. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 18.3 63.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/14/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.93 16.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.57 4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 66.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.45 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.86 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.78 4.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.46 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 493.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.36 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.42 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.30 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.86 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 37% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 4.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 9.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 33% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 37.4% 51.0% 41.0% 35.8% 10.0% 32.9% 28.6% 0.0% Logistic: 36.8% 46.8% 44.0% 39.9% 15.8% 27.9% 15.9% 5.7% Bayesian: 40.8% 28.5% 45.2% 16.4% 8.7% 8.3% 1.5% 0.0% Consensus: 38.3% 42.1% 43.4% 30.7% 11.5% 23.0% 15.3% 1.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/14/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/14/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 12( 16) 22( 35) 28( 53) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 3( 4) 12( 15) 11( 25) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 83 90 96 100 108 111 111 112 111 106 102 100 92 81 60 41 18HR AGO 75 74 81 87 91 99 102 102 103 102 97 93 91 83 72 51 32 12HR AGO 75 72 71 77 81 89 92 92 93 92 87 83 81 73 62 41 22 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 69 77 80 80 81 80 75 71 69 61 50 29 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 75 83 74 68 65 68 71 71 72 71 66 62 60 52 41 20 DIS IN 12HR 75 83 90 81 75 71 74 74 75 74 69 65 63 55 44 23 DIS