* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP192014 10/05/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 96 89 83 76 65 56 48 34 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 96 89 83 76 65 56 48 34 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 95 87 80 74 64 54 44 34 27 22 25 21 25 26 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 7 12 14 19 20 27 28 36 48 56 56 57 51 41 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 3 3 4 8 9 13 5 1 -4 -4 -4 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 237 254 241 225 247 257 246 246 238 234 241 247 253 257 261 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 24.7 24.5 24.8 24.7 24.6 24.8 24.9 25.9 25.5 26.2 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 109 106 109 108 106 109 110 120 116 123 147 149 150 152 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.5 -51.1 -50.8 -51.0 -50.8 -50.3 -50.0 -50.1 -50.2 -50.3 -50.8 -51.4 -52.0 -51.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 5 5 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 57 53 50 46 43 40 37 31 26 23 21 20 20 22 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 27 27 26 27 24 21 14 7 12 14 15 11 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 23 32 28 29 30 18 34 32 39 -2 -4 -4 -12 -3 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 31 34 16 15 13 25 58 28 12 -17 -18 -23 -23 -41 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 3 4 2 4 7 6 -1 -8 -2 -1 -3 1 1 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 535 539 555 528 499 420 326 215 99 45 -12 54 -15 -110 -239 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.4 23.0 23.5 24.0 24.9 25.7 26.6 27.4 28.2 28.9 29.7 30.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.4 116.9 117.4 117.6 117.8 117.7 117.3 116.7 115.9 115.1 114.3 113.5 112.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 23 15 4 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -14. -21. -28. -35. -40. -45. -49. -50. -50. -49. -49. -52. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -16. -23. -31. -40. -48. -54. -56. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -3. -7. -18. -29. -21. -17. -14. -17. -17. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -11. -17. -24. -35. -44. -52. -66. -83. -84. -87. -93.-107.-116.-122.-125. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 21.8 116.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192014 SIMON 10/05/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 10.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 669.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.09 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.32 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.49 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192014 SIMON 10/05/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##