* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182014 09/30/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 29 27 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 31 29 27 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 31 27 24 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 26 28 29 31 29 33 33 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 -2 0 -1 -2 -5 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 217 225 229 226 229 225 208 200 201 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.2 24.7 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 113 113 113 112 113 112 107 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.7 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 33 33 31 29 29 25 24 23 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 28 23 10 6 8 19 2 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 2 -5 -18 -7 -8 -2 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 3 1 2 1 3 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 549 558 567 576 586 615 664 719 776 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.1 23.0 23.0 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.5 117.7 117.8 118.0 118.1 118.4 119.0 119.8 120.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -11. -20. -28. -34. -37. -38. -39. -42. -47. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -9. -12. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -8. -10. -15. -22. -33. -43. -50. -56. -60. -63. -67. -70. -74. -77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 23.2 117.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182014 RACHEL 09/30/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.45 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.14 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 363.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182014 RACHEL 09/30/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##