* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182014 09/29/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 44 39 35 32 28 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 44 39 35 32 28 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 44 40 36 33 28 24 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 17 19 24 25 28 30 31 30 32 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 1 0 0 -1 0 -3 0 -6 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 218 213 203 218 227 228 226 210 208 195 204 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.8 25.9 25.9 25.8 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 117 115 115 115 115 117 118 118 118 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.0 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 34 34 34 34 30 29 26 27 29 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 13 12 10 9 7 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 34 28 36 32 20 16 18 13 0 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -22 -4 18 7 -3 -13 -10 -7 4 15 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 588 585 583 581 578 594 615 657 700 744 787 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.5 22.7 22.8 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.8 22.6 22.4 22.2 22.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.5 117.6 117.6 117.6 117.6 117.8 118.0 118.4 118.8 119.2 119.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 1 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -16. -22. -27. -30. -31. -32. -34. -38. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -17. -20. -19. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -15. -18. -22. -27. -35. -43. -49. -58. -60. -62. -63. -64. -67. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 22.5 117.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182014 RACHEL 09/29/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.34 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 485.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.31 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.39 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.30 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.69 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182014 RACHEL 09/29/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##