* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182014 09/28/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 74 72 69 65 57 48 42 33 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 74 72 69 65 57 48 42 33 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 74 71 68 64 56 48 42 37 32 27 24 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 10 12 18 18 16 21 20 25 27 27 23 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -3 0 1 0 0 1 -2 0 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 189 189 190 207 227 197 231 220 225 217 234 223 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.6 25.3 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 120 119 117 116 115 116 116 117 117 116 114 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -51.5 -51.9 -52.1 -51.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -53.2 -53.7 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 42 41 38 36 34 33 30 29 26 23 21 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 20 19 18 15 14 12 10 8 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 26 28 28 27 26 36 29 28 20 27 18 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 21 15 -1 -28 0 -6 -11 -16 -10 -7 -13 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 626 611 597 595 593 602 631 674 726 777 851 923 1002 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.7 22.0 22.2 22.4 22.4 22.2 21.9 21.6 21.5 21.3 21.2 21.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.1 117.2 117.3 117.4 117.5 117.6 117.8 118.1 118.5 119.0 119.7 120.6 121.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -16. -19. -21. -23. -26. -28. -30. -32. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -17. -18. -19. -18. -16. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -10. -18. -27. -33. -42. -49. -56. -61. -67. -67. -69. -70. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 21.3 117.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182014 RACHEL 09/28/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.13 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.28 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 668.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.09 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.72 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 0.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 5.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182014 RACHEL 09/28/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##