* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182014 09/27/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 61 63 64 62 58 53 46 39 34 29 26 24 22 23 23 V (KT) LAND 55 58 61 63 64 62 58 53 46 39 34 29 26 24 22 23 23 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 61 63 64 62 57 50 44 38 34 31 28 26 25 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 5 3 4 7 6 13 12 17 19 18 16 17 13 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 -5 -5 0 0 1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -4 -2 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 27 337 356 158 200 184 192 203 225 239 244 250 238 224 206 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 135 132 128 122 119 117 116 116 117 118 117 117 117 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 61 56 54 50 43 39 33 32 28 28 26 26 25 27 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 17 17 17 16 15 13 11 9 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 19 13 21 26 20 27 27 34 23 27 11 18 4 0 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 8 12 26 40 4 11 -6 -20 -10 -28 -7 -29 -1 -24 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 1 4 2 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 2 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 739 720 694 667 642 595 576 557 545 559 583 618 656 692 730 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.3 19.7 20.2 20.6 21.4 21.8 22.1 22.3 22.2 22.1 21.8 21.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.6 115.9 116.2 116.4 116.6 116.8 116.9 116.9 116.9 117.0 117.2 117.4 117.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 9. 7. 3. -2. -9. -16. -21. -26. -29. -31. -33. -32. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.8 115.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182014 RACHEL 09/27/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.46 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 6.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.83 8.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.28 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 329.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.51 -4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 7.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.61 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.25 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.0% 34.9% 33.2% 26.1% 15.8% 24.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.7% 12.7% 7.6% 5.9% 4.5% 4.3% 1.5% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.2% 15.9% 13.6% 10.7% 6.8% 9.6% 0.5% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182014 RACHEL 09/27/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##