* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182014 09/26/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 46 47 50 53 54 51 47 43 38 33 30 29 30 32 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 46 47 50 53 54 51 47 43 38 33 30 29 30 32 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 46 47 48 49 50 48 44 40 36 33 30 28 26 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 9 7 4 2 7 7 11 12 15 21 26 21 20 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -4 -3 1 -2 0 0 3 1 0 -2 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 43 30 33 54 75 107 179 195 209 221 207 214 216 230 229 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.5 28.0 27.7 27.0 26.3 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.7 25.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 149 143 139 132 124 119 117 117 116 116 117 116 116 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 64 61 60 59 54 48 40 35 31 29 25 22 20 18 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 16 14 12 10 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 39 36 38 34 22 26 17 21 22 26 16 17 11 2 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 16 28 32 24 -9 9 9 4 -14 -13 -4 -20 -16 -26 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -1 -1 -1 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 624 620 632 637 650 619 580 535 502 460 440 449 463 498 527 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.3 18.7 19.2 19.6 20.4 21.1 21.8 22.3 22.7 22.9 22.9 22.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.3 114.1 114.7 115.2 116.0 116.3 116.4 116.4 116.2 116.1 116.2 116.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 0 0 1 2 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 13 10 8 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 8. 7. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. -0. -3. -4. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 9. 6. 2. -2. -7. -12. -15. -16. -15. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.8 112.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182014 RACHEL 09/26/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.69 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.58 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.32 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 234.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.62 -3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.16 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.0 to -2.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 22.4% 18.4% 14.1% 0.0% 17.3% 15.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 1.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 7.8% 6.3% 4.8% 0.0% 6.0% 5.5% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182014 RACHEL 09/26/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##