* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/22/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 31 29 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 31 29 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 32 29 27 23 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 20 18 20 20 12 15 16 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -4 -5 -1 -3 0 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 123 131 140 152 151 141 123 116 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 128 129 127 125 126 127 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 46 46 45 43 44 40 43 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 9 9 8 6 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 35 24 19 12 10 -5 2 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 -1 -16 -12 -8 -9 -12 -27 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 5 5 5 3 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 230 251 286 334 384 470 553 642 718 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.8 22.8 22.9 22.8 22.7 22.4 21.9 21.3 20.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.9 113.6 114.2 114.8 115.3 116.1 116.7 117.3 117.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 463 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 17. 16. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -5. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -12. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -15. -21. -28. -31. -33. -34. -33. -32. -29. -27. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.8 112.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/22/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.60 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.15 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 279.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.64 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.74 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/22/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##