* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/20/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 37 34 32 30 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 40 37 34 32 30 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 39 35 32 30 25 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 25 26 27 27 21 24 19 21 17 17 16 19 19 16 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -2 -1 0 1 4 0 0 -1 -2 1 0 2 2 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 83 89 98 102 111 116 123 129 131 129 124 98 97 101 108 103 113 SST (C) 28.4 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.5 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 142 140 140 141 137 131 130 129 129 129 131 133 136 138 138 141 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 62 62 57 55 56 51 49 47 45 44 44 44 46 45 46 44 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 15 15 15 12 10 8 7 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 48 37 25 33 37 21 28 16 23 9 16 18 24 32 36 23 19 200 MB DIV 11 12 5 20 9 10 7 -12 13 6 -11 -13 -8 -13 -11 -15 -11 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 0 3 3 6 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 271 273 215 173 157 230 279 313 348 407 460 522 580 653 729 806 884 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.7 21.0 21.4 21.7 22.1 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.1 21.8 21.3 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.3 109.0 109.6 110.2 110.8 112.1 113.1 113.9 114.5 115.0 115.4 115.7 115.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 5 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 24 11 9 10 11 9 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 6 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 12. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -13. -16. -18. -18. -18. -19. -19. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -15. -17. -17. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -21. -28. -35. -40. -43. -45. -44. -42. -37. -34. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.3 108.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/20/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.64 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 246.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.64 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/20/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##