* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/19/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 58 58 56 56 53 51 45 39 31 25 19 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 59 58 58 56 56 53 51 45 39 31 25 19 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 58 57 55 53 49 45 40 35 29 24 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 20 20 24 21 21 17 22 22 23 22 27 24 23 14 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 10 8 6 4 0 5 1 5 1 5 0 1 0 3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 54 73 64 68 71 92 103 99 101 113 115 118 126 111 116 101 95 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.3 27.6 27.7 27.3 26.5 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 147 146 148 146 139 140 135 127 122 122 120 118 118 118 118 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.5 -51.1 -51.9 -51.2 -51.3 -51.1 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 8 9 7 8 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 70 68 68 66 64 62 55 54 48 49 46 46 41 44 43 44 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 18 17 19 17 18 15 13 11 8 6 5 3 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR 32 36 43 49 53 40 33 30 33 24 17 10 0 12 19 25 31 200 MB DIV 77 66 34 37 13 4 9 3 8 -4 -1 7 6 -11 -1 -23 -16 700-850 TADV -5 -3 0 1 0 -2 0 2 2 4 0 0 -3 -1 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 184 194 209 226 252 279 209 249 336 372 436 515 557 565 565 565 565 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.6 19.0 19.4 19.7 20.5 21.1 21.4 21.7 22.0 22.1 22.1 22.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.1 106.6 107.1 107.6 108.0 109.2 110.6 111.8 113.1 114.3 115.4 116.4 116.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 6 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 18 22 27 19 9 11 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. -21. -22. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -7. -9. -15. -21. -29. -35. -41. -43. -45. -46. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 18.1 106.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/19/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.53 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 224.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 18.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 6.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/19/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##