* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/17/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 71 74 77 77 75 71 66 62 57 53 48 43 37 31 28 V (KT) LAND 60 66 71 74 77 77 75 71 66 62 57 53 48 43 37 31 28 V (KT) LGEM 60 66 70 72 73 73 70 65 60 54 49 44 38 32 26 21 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 10 12 17 20 19 20 19 15 12 15 13 19 24 23 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 5 5 6 4 3 1 2 3 4 5 3 6 0 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 34 39 74 72 77 79 87 76 89 88 83 97 111 105 113 128 124 SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.1 27.6 27.7 27.1 26.2 26.0 26.0 25.9 25.6 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 142 141 143 146 148 144 138 140 133 124 121 121 120 117 114 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -51.6 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -50.9 -51.1 -51.0 -51.6 -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 9 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 77 75 75 74 70 70 70 68 61 58 54 52 47 45 42 40 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 19 18 16 13 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 30 38 35 23 22 46 56 55 32 43 29 40 26 22 11 5 10 200 MB DIV 94 74 77 76 64 26 44 37 9 19 9 7 8 5 10 -3 -13 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -6 -7 -6 -2 -2 0 -4 -2 0 2 3 3 0 1 -2 LAND (KM) 218 199 192 199 194 243 303 348 285 296 358 396 443 523 609 700 773 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.6 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.6 19.2 19.8 20.4 20.9 21.4 21.8 22.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.3 104.0 104.7 105.4 106.0 107.2 108.3 109.5 110.6 111.9 113.1 114.4 115.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 30 28 25 21 18 17 23 21 12 10 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 404 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -9. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 14. 17. 17. 15. 11. 6. 2. -3. -7. -12. -17. -23. -29. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.1 103.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/17/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.51 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.58 8.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.37 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.61 6.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 123.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.76 -7.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 9.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.80 6.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.24 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.34 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 35.1% 47.2% 37.6% 27.8% 20.4% 20.0% 13.7% 9.3% Logistic: 33.0% 39.8% 25.8% 15.7% 3.8% 8.6% 1.3% 0.7% Bayesian: 35.0% 55.0% 39.2% 35.5% 7.1% 6.0% 1.7% 0.0% Consensus: 34.3% 47.4% 34.2% 26.3% 10.4% 11.5% 5.6% 3.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/17/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##