* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/17/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 57 62 66 71 74 74 71 68 66 62 58 52 47 42 38 V (KT) LAND 50 54 57 62 66 71 74 74 71 68 66 62 58 52 47 42 38 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 56 58 61 64 65 64 62 59 56 51 44 38 32 27 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 10 11 12 17 13 11 22 19 15 14 18 21 22 22 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 5 5 4 6 4 9 -3 2 1 10 0 2 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 59 38 24 55 69 73 86 59 72 72 79 88 98 105 109 121 108 SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.8 28.3 27.5 27.5 26.7 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 149 147 145 144 145 147 151 146 137 137 129 123 121 120 119 117 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.3 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -50.9 -51.5 -50.5 -51.4 -50.9 -51.1 -50.6 -51.3 -51.2 -51.8 -52.0 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 11 9 8 10 7 9 6 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 77 74 73 75 73 72 70 68 68 63 63 59 55 49 46 38 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 21 22 22 23 23 22 24 25 24 24 21 19 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 27 28 38 38 28 44 54 66 49 46 37 42 33 23 21 8 10 200 MB DIV 79 94 78 73 73 68 40 60 -1 18 10 5 -1 3 -16 -8 -38 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -4 -4 -3 -6 0 0 -2 -3 -1 0 2 1 0 0 5 LAND (KM) 241 222 172 162 167 161 205 267 276 209 227 290 327 413 502 589 681 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 16.0 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.4 19.2 19.9 20.5 21.1 21.6 22.1 22.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.1 102.8 103.5 104.2 104.9 106.1 107.2 108.2 109.3 110.6 111.7 112.9 114.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 30 30 28 26 24 18 21 38 25 9 10 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 455 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 5. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 12. 16. 21. 24. 24. 21. 18. 16. 12. 8. 2. -3. -8. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.4 102.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/17/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.64 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.46 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.63 5.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.78 -6.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 5.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.67 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.27 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.31 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.5% 38.2% 28.2% 21.3% 15.0% 21.1% 15.8% 11.8% Logistic: 14.3% 38.1% 24.2% 13.8% 2.8% 12.6% 4.1% 0.9% Bayesian: 7.1% 40.1% 24.1% 14.9% 1.1% 10.9% 6.6% 0.3% Consensus: 12.3% 38.8% 25.5% 16.7% 6.3% 14.9% 8.8% 4.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/17/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##