* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/17/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 53 55 61 65 66 63 59 59 55 53 49 46 45 43 V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 53 55 61 65 66 63 59 59 55 53 49 46 45 43 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 50 51 53 56 58 55 53 50 48 45 41 38 34 30 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 7 10 12 15 21 19 21 19 16 15 17 9 17 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 9 9 6 6 5 3 2 1 -1 1 -1 0 2 4 2 3 SHEAR DIR 43 61 37 42 66 60 63 68 70 95 94 90 106 97 110 89 99 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.1 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.6 28.4 27.6 27.4 26.9 26.1 26.0 26.0 25.8 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 149 145 143 143 146 149 147 139 136 131 123 121 121 119 117 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.5 -51.5 -51.6 -51.3 -51.7 -51.0 -51.2 -51.0 -51.1 -51.2 -51.5 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 11 9 9 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 76 77 75 73 74 70 73 70 68 64 60 57 55 51 47 42 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 20 20 21 22 21 20 20 22 21 22 20 18 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR 20 24 25 35 33 22 54 56 63 38 54 44 54 37 42 42 33 200 MB DIV 78 86 113 75 67 82 53 38 55 -1 34 -4 16 1 -4 23 -13 700-850 TADV 0 -5 -4 -5 -6 -5 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -5 1 0 2 0 4 LAND (KM) 316 281 256 209 192 177 213 260 304 202 204 283 337 413 500 595 686 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 15.1 15.7 16.3 16.9 17.9 18.8 19.5 20.3 21.1 21.7 22.0 22.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.5 102.2 102.9 103.7 104.4 105.7 107.0 108.0 109.1 110.3 111.5 112.7 114.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 34 32 33 30 27 19 18 30 28 10 9 8 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 17. 17. 16. 16. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. 3. 2. 3. 1. -1. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 16. 20. 21. 18. 14. 14. 10. 8. 4. 1. -0. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.4 101.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/17/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.70 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.48 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.65 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 92.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.80 -4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.34 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.31 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.51 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.8% 27.5% 19.9% 19.7% 0.0% 19.8% 15.8% 12.2% Logistic: 4.5% 19.6% 10.6% 4.9% 0.6% 9.1% 4.1% 1.0% Bayesian: 2.1% 22.4% 13.3% 4.8% 0.2% 8.5% 3.7% 0.2% Consensus: 6.8% 23.2% 14.6% 9.8% 0.3% 12.5% 7.9% 4.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/17/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##