* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/17/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 80 81 80 75 61 46 31 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 78 80 81 80 75 61 46 31 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 76 75 75 75 67 55 45 38 34 33 33 34 33 32 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 3 7 11 14 24 32 33 31 22 19 27 35 35 28 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -4 1 8 6 5 -2 -8 -6 -3 0 -3 -3 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 156 181 192 217 232 252 273 284 300 315 291 261 264 267 274 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.7 26.9 25.3 23.9 21.9 23.0 22.4 22.6 23.1 23.8 24.6 25.5 26.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 136 127 111 100 87 91 87 88 91 96 101 108 118 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 123 121 113 99 88 77 78 75 75 78 82 86 92 100 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.8 -53.5 -54.0 -54.6 -54.6 -55.0 -55.3 -55.4 -55.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 8 7 6 3 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 50 51 48 47 52 50 48 40 39 32 31 30 32 30 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 31 31 31 30 26 20 15 10 8 8 7 6 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -9 18 7 2 2 -14 -53 -52 -15 -24 -21 -30 -20 -8 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 94 77 67 67 62 19 -3 -3 -18 -8 -18 -19 -16 -28 -39 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 22 5 9 7 18 15 16 16 15 -11 -28 -31 -30 -23 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1392 1306 1216 1092 978 986 1167 1354 1512 1636 1780 1956 2084 2063 2034 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.9 34.3 35.6 36.9 38.2 40.0 40.5 40.3 39.9 39.4 38.4 36.7 35.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.0 55.6 54.3 52.1 50.0 45.1 41.4 38.8 36.9 35.6 34.5 33.7 33.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 18 19 22 21 18 12 9 6 6 8 9 8 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 11 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 11 CX,CY: 1/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 729 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. -1. -5. -11. -19. -26. -33. -38. -42. -45. -48. -49. -51. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -8. -16. -25. -33. -37. -38. -40. -39. -39. -37. -36. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -0. 1. -0. -5. -19. -34. -49. -61. -66. -69. -73. -74. -75. -75. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 32.9 57.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/17/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.33 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 25.9 to 2.2 0.79 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.74 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.40 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 617.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.22 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.05 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.51 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 78.2 95.0 to 0.0 0.18 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 10.5% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 3.9% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/17/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/17/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 7( 14) 7( 20) 5( 24) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 78 80 81 80 75 61 46 31 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 81 82 81 76 62 47 32 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 77 76 71 57 42 27 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 69 64 50 35 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT