* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/15/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 104 102 101 100 95 84 75 64 57 53 53 53 50 45 43 42 V (KT) LAND 105 92 78 63 67 43 33 30 29 28 23 23 24 26 26 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 105 92 78 63 66 43 33 30 29 32 34 38 32 29 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 9 12 11 5 7 13 15 19 25 30 33 36 36 38 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 0 -2 0 -6 -2 -7 -1 -5 0 -1 1 -1 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 255 237 202 186 185 214 209 230 216 225 224 228 240 248 236 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.1 28.1 26.7 26.7 28.0 30.1 30.8 30.8 30.3 29.7 29.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 156 154 155 143 128 127 141 163 168 168 164 158 156 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.8 -50.7 -50.3 -50.4 -50.4 -50.3 -50.5 -50.5 -50.7 -50.4 -50.5 -50.4 -50.5 -50.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 7 7 5 5 4 4 4 6 7 8 7 7 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 74 71 70 68 64 59 53 50 46 40 36 35 36 39 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 24 23 22 20 16 13 7 5 3 4 4 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 52 48 48 39 21 6 -13 -2 -8 32 39 69 34 34 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 1 25 51 57 10 19 12 38 15 30 9 20 3 30 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 7 7 4 -2 1 0 0 0 -2 -4 -8 -5 -1 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -17 -16 -39 -15 1 -75 -10 -9 -27 33 46 14 -27 -76 -128 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.2 24.1 24.9 25.6 26.3 27.4 28.2 28.7 29.2 29.7 30.2 30.6 30.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.7 111.4 112.0 112.5 113.3 113.9 114.1 114.1 113.8 113.4 113.1 112.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 9 8 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 13 14 12 13 6 1 1 7 24 34 41 41 38 33 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 15 CX,CY: -5/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -12. -21. -27. -30. -32. -32. -31. -30. -30. -32. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -14. -20. -25. -26. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -15. -24. -27. -29. -27. -24. -21. -20. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -10. -20. -30. -41. -48. -52. -52. -52. -55. -60. -62. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 23.2 110.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/15/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.20 1.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.52 3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.34 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 235.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.62 -3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.24 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.93 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.11 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.24 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.2% 15.4% 13.2% 10.0% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 2.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 6.0% 4.6% 3.4% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/15/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##