* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/14/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 121 124 121 117 105 94 82 71 61 53 43 34 28 23 20 17 V (KT) LAND 115 121 124 121 117 105 94 82 71 61 53 43 34 28 23 20 17 V (KT) LGEM 115 119 117 111 104 90 79 71 64 57 51 46 41 37 34 33 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 6 4 7 5 6 8 12 11 16 22 28 28 28 26 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 4 0 0 0 -3 -5 -3 -2 -1 -4 -2 -2 -4 -3 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 130 142 176 219 214 187 255 205 237 209 222 208 224 237 242 247 253 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 27.9 27.4 27.3 26.4 26.2 26.4 25.7 25.0 24.6 24.5 24.5 24.6 24.6 24.8 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 144 139 137 127 124 125 118 109 104 102 101 103 104 105 106 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.8 -50.5 -50.8 -50.9 -50.2 -50.8 -49.9 -50.3 -49.9 -50.4 -50.3 -50.2 -50.0 -50.2 -50.0 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 7 6 6 4 4 2 3 3 5 5 5 3 4 3 700-500 MB RH 78 80 79 77 74 69 67 59 55 47 42 37 29 25 23 23 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 26 25 25 25 24 21 18 15 13 10 7 5 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 68 71 72 66 59 57 37 18 -2 2 -6 6 23 29 33 19 10 200 MB DIV 50 64 56 43 61 50 18 19 0 6 20 0 -7 -20 -17 -23 -13 700-850 TADV -7 -2 0 2 2 4 1 0 0 0 -1 -7 -12 -7 -1 0 3 LAND (KM) 237 302 164 66 73 42 104 68 74 98 132 144 148 139 130 113 104 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 20.5 21.5 22.4 23.3 24.7 25.8 26.7 27.3 27.8 28.1 28.2 28.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.7 108.6 109.5 110.4 111.2 112.7 113.8 114.7 115.5 116.0 116.3 116.4 116.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 11 9 7 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 HEAT CONTENT 27 41 17 5 3 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 12 CX,CY: -6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 472 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -12. -22. -31. -40. -47. -54. -59. -63. -66. -69. -73. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 0. -4. -8. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 7. 9. 9. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -11. -16. -18. -21. -23. -23. -21. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 9. 6. 2. -10. -21. -33. -44. -54. -62. -72. -81. -87. -92. -95. -98. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 19.4 107.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/14/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.02 0.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.75 7.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.76 5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.48 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.77 -5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.08 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.93 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.17 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.44 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.8% 21.2% 19.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 51.7% 35.7% 17.1% 11.9% 2.9% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 16.9% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 30.5% 19.6% 12.2% 4.0% 1.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/14/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##