* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/14/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 125 128 127 121 108 96 85 73 66 57 45 35 26 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 125 128 127 121 108 96 85 73 66 57 45 35 26 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 124 126 121 112 97 86 75 66 60 54 48 41 35 31 28 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 8 7 10 7 3 6 11 14 20 27 35 29 28 26 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 2 0 -3 0 -1 -3 -4 -4 -1 -5 -3 -3 -1 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 117 165 172 185 226 205 177 223 198 224 216 219 217 235 249 270 259 SST (C) 29.0 29.3 29.4 28.1 27.5 27.4 26.5 26.7 26.4 25.5 24.6 24.1 23.9 24.0 24.0 24.3 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 159 160 146 140 138 128 129 125 116 106 100 97 98 98 101 103 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.2 -50.5 -50.2 -50.5 -50.2 -50.2 -50.1 -50.3 -50.3 -50.2 -50.4 -50.2 -50.4 -50.3 -50.5 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 9 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 4 5 3 700-500 MB RH 79 79 80 79 76 72 72 69 64 57 48 40 33 30 27 29 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 27 28 28 27 26 25 21 19 17 13 11 8 6 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 65 73 75 76 63 59 46 28 8 4 5 13 39 48 46 13 7 200 MB DIV 88 48 53 65 17 44 67 10 21 27 42 13 9 -12 -9 -21 -1 700-850 TADV -9 -5 0 -3 0 8 1 3 3 1 0 -4 -10 -7 0 1 10 LAND (KM) 223 227 281 177 59 54 75 74 62 59 127 110 89 66 53 43 37 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.5 20.5 21.5 22.4 24.0 25.2 26.2 27.0 27.8 28.4 28.9 29.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.9 107.7 108.4 109.3 110.2 111.7 112.9 114.0 114.9 115.6 116.1 116.4 116.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 12 9 8 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 20 28 43 19 5 4 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 12 CX,CY: -5/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 463 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -3. -10. -19. -29. -37. -44. -51. -56. -60. -63. -67. -72. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 1. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. -2. -7. -10. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 11. 14. 14. 12. 7. 2. -3. -6. -6. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -9. -12. -15. -19. -20. -21. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 10. 13. 12. 6. -7. -19. -30. -42. -49. -58. -70. -80. -89. -96.-100.-102. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 18.5 106.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/14/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.07 0.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 40.0 -20.0 to 40.0 1.00 9.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.65 4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.48 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 118.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.76 -5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.08 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.87 4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.22 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.37 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 55% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 55.3% 23.1% 21.9% 19.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 65.4% 37.3% 21.5% 15.4% 4.4% 4.3% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 7.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 42.7% 20.5% 14.6% 11.5% 1.5% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/14/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##