* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/14/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 65 71 76 83 91 96 99 99 96 85 69 51 35 23 16 V (KT) LAND 55 60 65 71 76 83 91 96 99 99 96 85 69 51 35 23 16 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 66 72 78 89 96 97 93 91 84 71 55 43 35 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 10 9 10 12 6 9 5 4 12 21 34 45 51 51 46 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 -1 1 2 0 4 -2 8 4 6 -2 -7 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 199 180 150 111 134 121 123 139 242 251 233 240 250 262 282 291 291 SST (C) 28.1 28.5 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.3 28.2 27.9 27.4 25.7 23.5 21.8 20.5 21.0 21.8 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 139 145 154 160 163 161 157 139 136 131 115 98 88 82 83 87 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 133 142 146 148 143 136 120 118 115 102 87 78 73 74 76 76 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -51.4 -51.1 -50.8 -51.1 -50.7 -51.2 -51.7 -52.7 -53.4 -54.4 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.0 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 8 5 2 1 1 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 45 46 44 44 44 43 45 47 52 60 55 50 45 44 50 52 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 24 26 28 29 32 34 35 35 35 33 28 22 17 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 6 -1 -9 1 0 -19 -7 -8 -17 -3 -9 0 -7 -47 -45 -34 16 200 MB DIV 1 -9 41 84 62 33 59 29 69 98 94 57 38 -8 -38 3 -9 700-850 TADV 13 10 13 11 9 5 5 1 4 10 11 -6 1 -11 -9 -2 -8 LAND (KM) 1923 1833 1751 1665 1589 1486 1491 1588 1469 1281 1031 856 971 1215 1484 1744 1748 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.7 24.4 25.1 25.7 27.0 28.5 30.2 32.3 34.8 37.5 40.3 41.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.9 49.0 50.1 51.3 52.5 54.7 56.2 57.0 56.6 54.7 51.5 47.2 43.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 12 11 10 10 13 17 20 19 15 13 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 33 37 36 39 41 31 25 13 12 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 6. 3. -1. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 6. 0. -7. -13. -18. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 13. 12. 13. 9. 1. -8. -14. -19. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 21. 28. 36. 41. 44. 44. 41. 30. 14. -4. -20. -32. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 23.0 47.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/14/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 7.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.62 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.25 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.68 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.49 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 454.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.41 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.56 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.32 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.67 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 30.4% 19.7% 13.9% 6.7% 22.2% 25.2% 0.0% Logistic: 6.3% 28.6% 24.5% 13.3% 4.5% 12.6% 7.2% 6.8% Bayesian: 0.9% 2.8% 3.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.1% 2.1% 0.2% Consensus: 6.4% 20.6% 15.8% 9.1% 3.8% 12.0% 11.5% 2.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/14/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/14/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 2( 2) 5( 7) 9( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 60 65 71 76 83 91 96 99 99 96 85 69 51 35 23 16 18HR AGO 55 54 59 65 70 77 85 90 93 93 90 79 63 45 29 17 DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 57 62 69 77 82 85 85 82 71 55 37 21 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 50 57 65 70 73 73 70 59 43 25 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT