* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/13/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 58 64 69 79 88 95 101 101 99 91 81 63 48 33 24 V (KT) LAND 50 54 58 64 69 79 88 95 101 101 99 91 81 63 48 33 24 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 57 62 68 80 92 97 95 91 85 75 62 50 42 36 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 11 8 7 4 5 8 4 5 14 12 24 28 35 44 48 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 0 2 0 -2 0 -2 -2 2 4 12 1 -1 -6 -1 SHEAR DIR 198 203 199 139 93 144 115 202 258 257 231 246 244 264 271 279 279 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.5 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.5 28.5 28.0 27.7 25.8 25.1 23.5 22.1 21.7 22.2 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 145 156 159 161 160 144 137 134 115 109 96 88 86 89 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 127 133 143 146 145 141 124 118 116 100 95 84 78 76 78 77 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.0 -51.0 -50.1 -50.7 -49.9 -50.2 -49.8 -50.9 -51.4 -52.6 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.6 1.6 1.1 0.6 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 9 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 48 46 47 45 44 44 46 44 51 57 61 55 48 42 43 49 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 24 26 27 30 33 34 36 36 36 35 34 27 22 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR 9 6 -3 -9 0 -11 -10 -14 0 -14 -8 -12 -3 -34 -43 -25 31 200 MB DIV 36 5 -6 40 77 13 69 42 72 63 109 73 62 12 -2 6 -2 700-850 TADV 17 13 8 12 11 8 3 4 -1 5 1 13 3 3 2 -11 -2 LAND (KM) 1964 1913 1833 1753 1682 1570 1536 1597 1517 1339 1134 929 941 1132 1372 1626 1894 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 23.0 23.7 24.5 25.2 26.7 28.2 29.9 31.9 34.1 36.5 38.9 40.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.0 48.0 49.0 50.1 51.2 53.4 55.2 56.4 56.4 55.1 52.6 49.0 45.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 12 12 10 9 11 14 17 18 15 14 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 29 33 37 37 40 37 29 15 12 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 12 CX,CY: -6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 11. 13. 13. 13. 11. 8. 5. 2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 8. 5. 0. -5. -10. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 15. 15. 13. 10. 0. -7. -13. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 19. 29. 38. 45. 51. 51. 49. 41. 31. 13. -2. -17. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 22.3 47.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/13/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.72 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.24 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.57 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.61 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 396.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.48 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.57 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.29 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.95 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 23.9% 14.7% 9.5% 6.2% 16.7% 25.1% 26.5% Logistic: 4.5% 24.9% 16.7% 5.8% 2.7% 10.9% 9.7% 7.8% Bayesian: 0.6% 5.8% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 1.0% 6.5% 0.5% Consensus: 4.1% 18.2% 11.3% 5.1% 3.0% 9.5% 13.8% 11.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/13/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/13/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 7( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 54 58 64 69 79 88 95 101 101 99 91 81 63 48 33 24 18HR AGO 50 49 53 59 64 74 83 90 96 96 94 86 76 58 43 28 19 12HR AGO 50 47 46 52 57 67 76 83 89 89 87 79 69 51 36 21 DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 45 55 64 71 77 77 75 67 57 39 24 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT