* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/13/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 74 82 88 97 99 96 88 81 73 67 59 53 46 39 31 V (KT) LAND 60 66 74 82 88 97 99 96 88 81 73 67 59 53 46 39 31 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 69 73 77 84 90 90 85 76 68 60 52 44 39 33 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 6 11 6 2 5 8 7 7 10 9 14 14 17 22 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 4 1 1 1 -1 -2 -5 -2 -2 0 0 -1 3 -2 5 SHEAR DIR 23 68 53 53 65 183 166 172 147 207 231 193 206 223 209 204 215 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 27.7 27.2 26.3 25.7 24.5 23.7 23.0 22.4 22.1 21.9 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 153 152 151 150 141 136 126 119 106 97 89 82 78 77 76 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.1 -51.3 -51.5 -50.9 -50.2 -49.9 -50.1 -50.0 -49.9 -50.1 -49.7 -50.0 -50.1 -50.2 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 9 8 8 7 6 4 4 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 77 78 76 77 78 78 76 77 72 69 65 64 61 54 49 44 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 26 28 27 28 30 30 30 29 28 27 25 23 21 18 15 850 MB ENV VOR 39 34 52 70 78 77 69 82 78 70 43 42 27 43 36 33 31 200 MB DIV 45 68 101 117 75 60 64 54 41 5 22 30 28 18 31 6 -2 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -5 -5 1 4 0 -3 0 -1 0 2 1 1 0 -2 LAND (KM) 317 320 310 302 318 376 210 229 205 276 267 274 309 339 357 380 405 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.5 18.1 19.6 21.2 22.6 23.8 24.8 25.6 26.1 26.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.4 105.9 106.4 107.1 107.7 109.2 110.9 112.6 114.0 115.3 116.3 117.0 117.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 9 10 11 11 10 8 7 5 4 3 2 2 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 47 35 28 19 17 24 11 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 63.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -3. -7. -11. -15. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 17. 10. 2. -2. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 14. 22. 28. 37. 39. 36. 28. 21. 13. 7. -1. -7. -14. -21. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.2 105.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/13/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.60 11.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 7.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.60 8.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.64 9.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 63.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.83 -11.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 12.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 34.4 to 2.3 1.00 10.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.29 1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 4.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.26 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 70% is 5.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 40% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 30.1% 69.8% 54.7% 41.8% 34.4% 39.7% 27.0% 11.6% Logistic: 41.0% 70.1% 44.6% 33.9% 14.9% 35.0% 6.4% 0.9% Bayesian: 13.0% 62.0% 49.2% 47.9% 17.0% 37.9% 19.3% 0.3% Consensus: 28.0% 67.3% 49.5% 41.2% 22.1% 37.5% 17.6% 4.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/13/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##