* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/13/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 46 49 55 64 75 85 92 95 91 88 80 69 55 46 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 46 49 55 64 75 85 92 95 91 88 80 69 55 46 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 43 45 50 59 70 81 86 85 82 75 64 55 48 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 13 11 11 6 8 5 10 5 8 21 23 25 29 34 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 3 1 2 0 -1 0 -1 1 7 -1 10 10 9 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 212 202 199 191 172 175 157 135 181 221 213 246 244 262 250 255 252 SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.8 29.5 29.5 28.9 28.1 27.8 27.2 25.9 25.0 24.8 25.2 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 128 130 133 135 136 149 161 160 150 138 135 128 113 105 103 107 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 121 124 126 126 137 147 143 132 121 118 111 96 89 88 90 88 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.0 -51.0 -50.7 -51.0 -50.7 -50.5 -50.4 -51.4 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.4 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 11 11 10 10 6 5 4 4 2 1 700-500 MB RH 51 53 51 49 48 47 44 44 44 46 52 60 55 54 45 38 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 21 23 24 25 28 31 34 36 37 36 36 34 30 24 20 850 MB ENV VOR 37 38 31 27 30 9 10 -6 1 -4 -8 -13 -17 6 6 1 -5 200 MB DIV 74 74 47 34 9 4 58 37 66 59 41 37 73 63 59 13 0 700-850 TADV 1 4 10 14 13 9 9 9 5 0 8 7 32 26 11 -41 -37 LAND (KM) 1801 1814 1830 1826 1792 1625 1493 1416 1451 1594 1493 1288 1095 1027 1057 1170 1298 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 20.0 20.6 21.3 22.0 23.3 24.7 26.2 28.0 30.0 32.4 35.0 36.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.7 45.8 46.8 47.8 48.9 51.0 53.0 54.9 56.2 56.6 55.9 54.0 51.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 12 12 12 12 10 10 11 14 15 12 11 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 14 11 14 18 23 32 35 33 23 13 10 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. 20. 18. 16. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 2. -1. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 16. 16. 14. 13. 9. 4. -4. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 10. 15. 24. 35. 45. 52. 55. 51. 48. 40. 29. 15. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.3 44.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/13/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 25.9 to 2.2 0.55 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.11 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.49 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.27 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 273.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.62 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.55 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.38 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.7 95.0 to 0.0 0.81 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 13.5% 9.2% 6.7% 3.6% 8.4% 11.3% 16.4% Logistic: 1.8% 8.6% 3.7% 1.8% 1.2% 5.5% 7.2% 11.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% Consensus: 2.3% 7.7% 4.3% 2.8% 1.6% 4.7% 6.3% 9.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/13/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/13/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 44 46 49 55 64 75 85 92 95 91 88 80 69 55 46 18HR AGO 40 39 41 43 46 52 61 72 82 89 92 88 85 77 66 52 43 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 41 47 56 67 77 84 87 83 80 72 61 47 38 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 33 39 48 59 69 76 79 75 72 64 53 39 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT