* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/12/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 68 76 86 98 102 101 97 89 80 70 63 56 49 43 35 V (KT) LAND 55 60 68 76 86 98 102 101 97 89 80 70 63 56 49 43 35 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 64 70 76 88 96 97 94 87 78 68 58 49 41 33 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 11 5 4 2 6 3 7 7 13 20 11 13 15 19 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 0 1 0 1 -4 1 0 -1 -3 1 4 1 8 0 SHEAR DIR 25 30 27 17 359 351 117 110 237 153 146 165 193 201 197 193 193 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.2 28.7 28.3 28.0 27.6 26.9 26.4 25.3 23.7 22.8 21.8 21.0 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 157 156 156 152 148 145 140 132 126 114 97 87 76 68 70 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 -51.6 -51.1 -50.2 -50.2 -49.4 -49.7 -49.9 -49.7 -49.9 -49.6 -50.0 -50.3 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.5 1.2 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 79 78 77 77 75 78 76 75 73 74 71 66 61 55 52 46 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 29 31 34 36 37 38 38 36 34 32 29 27 24 21 18 850 MB ENV VOR 27 45 44 42 59 76 68 89 82 79 83 57 62 62 54 39 36 200 MB DIV 70 81 76 70 90 73 40 29 67 28 50 26 31 33 27 35 2 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -3 -4 -6 0 0 2 0 0 3 4 2 0 LAND (KM) 338 343 350 359 354 354 401 286 306 295 362 367 373 388 421 453 499 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.8 15.9 16.2 16.5 17.8 19.3 20.8 22.2 23.3 24.1 24.7 25.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.8 105.2 105.5 106.0 106.5 107.9 109.7 111.6 113.3 114.7 115.8 116.7 117.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 6 8 10 12 11 10 7 6 5 5 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 68 64 60 45 34 17 19 12 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 70.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 4. 0. -4. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 15. 16. 14. 10. 7. 3. 1. -2. -4. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 14. 21. 19. 11. 3. -3. -7. -11. -12. -13. -12. -12. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 13. 21. 31. 43. 47. 46. 42. 34. 25. 15. 8. 1. -6. -12. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.6 104.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/12/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.68 10.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 6.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.46 5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.61 7.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 36.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.86 -9.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 10.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.80 7.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.56 3.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.42 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 57% is 4.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 46% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.2% 57.4% 45.1% 28.9% 25.5% 45.7% 29.8% 13.0% Logistic: 4.5% 33.7% 12.5% 6.5% 3.3% 11.2% 7.8% 3.1% Bayesian: 3.2% 44.8% 38.3% 26.7% 5.9% 34.0% 21.1% 5.2% Consensus: 8.0% 45.3% 32.0% 20.7% 11.6% 30.3% 19.6% 7.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/12/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##