* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/12/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 66 74 83 96 100 99 96 91 83 74 65 57 48 40 32 V (KT) LAND 55 60 66 74 83 96 100 99 96 91 83 74 65 57 48 40 32 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 64 70 76 88 95 97 94 88 80 69 57 46 37 29 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 14 11 4 8 9 8 4 10 8 14 10 17 18 19 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -2 0 -1 0 0 -4 -2 -3 0 0 0 4 0 SHEAR DIR 27 31 34 29 58 48 119 120 147 137 135 145 174 181 201 175 196 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.3 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.9 27.1 26.5 24.9 23.6 22.2 21.3 21.4 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 157 156 151 150 146 143 134 128 110 96 81 71 72 75 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.1 -50.7 -49.9 -49.8 -48.9 -49.8 -49.3 -49.7 -49.3 -49.6 -49.6 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 8 8 10 8 8 6 5 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 80 78 77 76 77 74 75 75 74 73 70 66 64 60 55 48 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 28 31 32 35 37 37 37 37 37 36 34 31 28 25 22 17 850 MB ENV VOR 16 33 46 56 56 85 76 102 89 89 71 61 31 48 41 37 31 200 MB DIV 61 69 83 72 92 51 78 67 77 31 16 25 19 20 30 12 0 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 -1 -3 -3 -3 -4 -7 -2 -3 0 -1 1 0 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 353 365 377 377 374 368 422 321 329 308 378 401 422 455 489 525 567 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.9 16.2 17.2 18.7 20.2 21.6 22.9 23.9 24.7 25.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.9 105.2 105.5 105.9 106.3 107.6 109.3 111.1 112.9 114.5 115.9 117.2 118.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 5 7 10 11 11 11 9 8 6 5 4 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 72 72 73 57 41 18 18 16 9 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 63.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 4. 0. -4. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 13. 15. 15. 13. 10. 6. 2. -1. -4. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 17. 10. 2. -2. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 19. 28. 41. 45. 44. 41. 36. 28. 19. 10. 2. -7. -15. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.5 104.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/12/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.69 8.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.31 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.60 5.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.84 -7.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 7.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.63 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 63.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.66 2.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.41 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.8% 42.7% 31.9% 23.1% 18.8% 30.0% 16.8% 12.8% Logistic: 2.9% 23.6% 7.8% 3.8% 2.9% 4.9% 7.9% 2.8% Bayesian: 0.7% 26.8% 15.9% 8.3% 5.6% 32.2% 37.7% 8.4% Consensus: 6.1% 31.0% 18.5% 11.8% 9.1% 22.3% 20.8% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/12/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##