* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/12/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 54 60 67 82 91 94 94 92 84 75 65 58 52 47 41 V (KT) LAND 50 51 54 60 67 82 91 94 94 92 84 75 65 58 52 47 41 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 54 57 61 72 83 90 93 90 81 69 56 46 40 34 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 13 12 14 12 4 10 7 4 3 12 13 12 12 13 13 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -3 -2 0 -4 0 0 3 -4 -1 -1 -2 0 0 -6 SHEAR DIR 37 30 33 21 15 71 62 140 139 136 102 140 178 188 188 159 168 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.6 28.2 28.1 27.5 26.9 25.8 24.3 23.0 22.9 22.7 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 157 157 155 151 147 146 139 132 121 105 91 89 87 87 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 -51.0 -50.6 -50.0 -49.7 -49.2 -49.4 -49.6 -49.2 -49.6 -49.2 -49.5 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.4 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 8 8 8 8 6 5 3 2 1 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 81 80 78 79 77 78 76 78 77 75 70 67 62 54 49 38 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 28 30 32 34 38 38 39 40 39 38 36 33 30 27 24 19 850 MB ENV VOR 26 22 37 52 55 81 92 92 89 90 74 72 76 91 68 72 76 200 MB DIV 73 65 82 67 58 94 87 79 75 42 46 18 5 -3 21 17 -8 700-850 TADV 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -9 -4 -7 -2 -4 -3 1 1 1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 357 358 360 362 369 347 395 369 325 342 406 486 557 664 777 896 1009 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.9 18.1 19.6 20.9 22.2 23.2 24.0 24.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.8 105.0 105.2 105.6 105.9 107.0 108.6 110.4 112.3 114.1 115.9 117.6 119.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 4 6 8 11 11 11 10 9 9 7 6 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 71 73 72 64 52 25 16 20 10 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 36.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 54.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 11. 8. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 18. 21. 21. 18. 15. 10. 6. 2. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -6. -7. -6. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 14. 8. 2. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 10. 17. 32. 41. 44. 44. 42. 34. 25. 15. 8. 2. -3. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.4 104.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/12/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.74 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 37.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 36.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 66.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.70 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.9% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% 7.4% Consensus: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.2% 2.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/12/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##