* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/12/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 42 45 50 54 62 69 78 83 87 85 83 80 75 68 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 42 45 50 54 62 69 78 83 87 85 83 80 75 68 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 43 46 48 52 59 68 77 82 80 77 74 70 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 15 18 16 13 15 9 11 12 17 16 20 22 25 29 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 1 4 5 3 3 0 0 0 4 3 6 4 3 0 SHEAR DIR 223 230 211 212 221 191 206 167 184 135 172 160 192 191 235 245 251 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.7 27.9 28.8 29.2 29.6 29.1 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.7 26.7 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 125 127 128 133 135 149 155 162 153 144 140 135 134 123 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 118 118 119 120 123 124 135 140 145 134 123 119 116 116 107 94 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -51.4 -51.5 -50.6 -50.9 -50.7 -51.2 -51.3 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 9 8 7 5 700-500 MB RH 54 54 52 54 54 51 50 48 45 45 41 42 42 44 40 42 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 18 19 20 22 22 24 26 29 32 34 34 35 35 34 31 850 MB ENV VOR 52 46 46 48 47 38 32 27 13 16 11 26 24 36 22 29 12 200 MB DIV 35 21 46 58 51 35 -4 57 22 54 30 66 23 47 27 37 2 700-850 TADV 2 5 6 4 6 10 15 12 12 5 5 1 4 -1 7 3 2 LAND (KM) 1849 1816 1788 1780 1781 1822 1777 1648 1548 1494 1491 1546 1671 1606 1490 1300 1181 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.9 19.4 20.7 21.9 23.1 24.5 26.0 27.5 29.0 30.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.1 42.2 43.3 44.3 45.3 47.2 49.0 50.7 52.3 53.8 55.1 56.0 55.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 7 8 10 14 16 14 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 9 14 12 15 23 33 33 34 27 18 13 10 10 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. 26. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 14. 17. 20. 18. 18. 16. 14. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 15. 19. 27. 34. 43. 48. 52. 50. 48. 45. 40. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.3 41.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/12/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.46 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.31 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.24 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 211.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.69 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.55 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.35 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.7 95.0 to 0.0 0.71 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 11.7% 8.1% 5.8% 2.4% 7.3% 8.9% 12.6% Logistic: 2.4% 8.1% 3.8% 2.0% 1.0% 4.1% 4.1% 5.0% Bayesian: 1.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% Consensus: 2.6% 6.8% 4.0% 2.6% 1.1% 3.8% 4.4% 5.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/12/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/12/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 42 45 50 54 62 69 78 83 87 85 83 80 75 68 18HR AGO 35 34 37 39 42 47 51 59 66 75 80 84 82 80 77 72 65 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 36 41 45 53 60 69 74 78 76 74 71 66 59 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 33 37 45 52 61 66 70 68 66 63 58 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT