* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/11/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 57 65 73 88 100 106 107 108 104 97 89 81 72 64 56 V (KT) LAND 45 50 57 65 73 88 100 106 107 108 104 97 89 81 72 64 56 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 54 59 65 78 92 103 109 109 104 91 81 69 55 44 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 15 15 13 10 1 5 10 9 3 9 10 10 12 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 4 3 2 0 -2 -2 0 -5 0 -3 -2 3 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 48 47 53 58 49 3 305 24 128 110 187 165 154 154 169 188 183 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.4 28.8 28.4 28.0 26.4 26.4 24.3 22.8 22.1 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 157 157 158 159 160 159 153 149 145 128 127 105 88 81 80 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -51.7 -52.0 -52.4 -51.2 -51.2 -50.8 -50.2 -49.6 -49.5 -48.4 -49.6 -48.9 -49.5 -49.1 -49.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.2 1.3 1.1 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 8 7 9 7 10 7 8 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 82 79 80 78 77 79 79 76 76 78 75 75 73 67 62 50 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 25 27 30 33 36 38 39 41 41 39 37 34 30 26 22 850 MB ENV VOR 16 19 40 42 36 46 67 94 75 91 86 83 57 62 62 65 63 200 MB DIV 70 84 113 77 73 85 81 121 92 78 56 76 30 45 28 6 -1 700-850 TADV 3 4 9 8 3 0 -2 -4 -7 -5 -11 0 -2 -3 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 310 318 325 331 336 326 315 304 366 244 246 228 319 394 483 576 690 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.9 16.7 17.9 19.3 20.8 22.2 23.7 24.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.1 104.3 104.4 104.5 104.6 105.1 106.1 107.4 109.0 110.7 112.4 114.2 115.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 1 2 5 7 10 11 11 11 10 9 8 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 60 61 62 63 63 57 38 23 25 20 10 1 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 67.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 17. 18. 20. 21. 21. 20. 18. 15. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 16. 22. 26. 30. 28. 25. 20. 15. 10. 5. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 18. 10. 3. -2. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 12. 20. 28. 43. 55. 61. 62. 63. 59. 52. 44. 36. 27. 19. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.5 104.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/11/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.78 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.19 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.65 4.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.87 -6.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 4.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.37 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.65 2.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.0 to -2.0 1.00 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 36% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 38% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.1% 24.1% 23.5% 18.9% 0.0% 21.1% 36.3% 37.8% Logistic: 1.5% 10.7% 3.6% 1.5% 0.4% 3.6% 8.5% 9.5% Bayesian: 2.1% 16.5% 7.6% 2.2% 0.4% 10.2% 34.1% 71.2% Consensus: 5.6% 17.1% 11.6% 7.5% 0.3% 11.6% 26.3% 39.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/11/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##